Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-3, 2-2 O/U) are going to be facing the UL Monroe Warhawks (2-1, 2-1 O/U) and are battling it out in Week 5 Sun Belt Conference action on Saturday afternoon inside Malone Stadium for our Red Wolves vs. Warhawks prediction. Arkansas State is currently on a three-game losing streak as they are coming off a 28-21 road loss to the Kennesaw State Owls on Saturday. UL Monroe was able to get back in the win column after Saturday’s 31-25 road win over the UTEP Miners. The Red Wolves hold a dominating 31-14 record against the Warhawks, including winning the previous 15 games. Before kickoff: NCAAF predictions for Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. UL Monroe Warhawks in one clean snapshot.
Red Wolves Looking to Turn Things Around
The Arkansas State Red Wolves have been struggling to begin the season as they are 1-3 after their 28-21 road loss against the Kennesaw State Owls last time out, which was their third straight loss. Two of their defeats came against Power 4 teams in Iowa State and Arkansas. QB Jaylen Raynor is completing 65.5% of his passes for 918 yards with six TDs and three picks. He also has 143 yards rushing and two scores. Chauncy Cobb leads the way with 19 catches for 241 yards.
UL Monroe’s defense is not doing too hot as they are giving up 36.5 points per game, which is 125th. The defense has been unable to apply much pressure as they have three sacks and one interception on the season, but no forced fumbles or fumble recoveries. The defense needs to help put the offense in positions to win.
Injury Report for Arkansas State
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- Tight end Tyler Little: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Ja’Quez Cross: Knee (OUT)
Warhawks Ready for a Battle
The UL Monroe Warhawks are looking to build off winning last week over the UTEP Miners on the road 27-10. The offense is struggling as they are averaging 20.0 points per game up to this point. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has been struggling under center as he completed just 28-of-51 (54.9%) of his passes for 259 yards with three passing touchdowns to two interceptions while also running 11 times for 62 yards (5.6 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown. The team has a strong rushing attack as running back Braylon McReynolds has 36 carries for 244 yards (6.8 yards per carry) with a touchdown run and five catches for 33 yards (6.6 yards per reception) with a touchdown reception as well.
The defense has been brutal thus far as they are giving up 32.7 points per game. The defense recorded six sacks, three interceptions, and 11 pass deflections to help get things on track. If the offense can wake up, this team could take a massive step forward.
Injury Report for UL Monroe
No injuries to report
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Pick
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
- UL Monroe Warhawks -120 (4 units)
The Arkansas State defense is struggling too much in order to trust them to get stops throughout the game. So far this season, the Red Wolves are allowing 7.2 yards per play and that is one of the worst in the entire nation. This game is a good spot for Aidan Armenta to step up and improve his passing numbers in order to sustain drives to lead to victory. Louisiana Monroe is an outstanding rushing offense, so they are going to be able to run the ball effectively with players like Braylon McReynolds getting a lot of touches in the game. All in all, go with the UL Monroe Warhawks to control how this game goes.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
- Over 53.5 (4 units)
Moving the ball through the air is not going to be too difficult for these quarterbacks as we are looking at two of the worst pass-defenses in college football thus far. Arkansas State is 127th with an opposing quarterback completion percentage of 68.5 while UL Monroe is 78th with a 62.1 completion percentage against. Both offenses throughout the year have shown the ability to run the football effectively as the Red Wolves are averaging 3.8 rushing yards per attempt while the Warhawks are running for 5.6 yards per pop. The over is the better bet so take that here as well.
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