Arkansas State vs Memphis Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026
Arkansas State travels to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium to face Memphis on Saturday, September 5. Memphis already has a game under its belt after opening its season against UNLV, while Arkansas State will be making its 2026 debut. The current market has Memphis favored by 9.5 points after opening around -10.5, while the total has fallen from approximately 55.5 to 53.5. Get into the action with our free college football picks.
Arkansas State Gets a Useful Number
Arkansas State is getting close to double digits in a matchup where Memphis has already had an opportunity to reveal some of its strengths and weaknesses.
The Red Wolves don't need to win. They need to prevent Memphis from creating two-score separation.
The movement from an opening +10.5 toward +9.5 is worth noting because the market has slightly reduced Memphis' expected advantage.
Memphis Has the Game-Experience Edge
Memphis already has one game behind it, which can be especially useful early in the season.
The Tigers have already gone through game-speed substitutions, communication and live adjustments while Arkansas State will be experiencing those issues for the first time.
That advantage makes Memphis the more attractive straight-up team, but laying nearly 10 points requires more.
Arkansas State vs Memphis Picks and Prediction
Pick: Arkansas State +9.5
I'm taking Arkansas State +9.5. Memphis should have an advantage from already playing, but the number provides the Red Wolves with enough room in a matchup that doesn't project as a total mismatch. Something around Memphis 30, Arkansas State 24 gives the Tigers another victory while comfortably cashing the dog. Take Arkansas State +9.5.
Pick: Over 53.5
At the reduced number, I lean Over 53.5. Arkansas State covering becomes easier if the Red Wolves contribute into the 20s, and Memphis should be capable of approaching 30 at home. A 31-24 or 30-27 game gets there.
Final Picks: Arkansas State +9.5 and Over 53.5