Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons, Odds, Preview, Prediction & Pick Saturday, November 1, 2025
The Air Force Falcons (2-5, 1-4 MW) will host the Army Black Knights (3-4, 2-3 AAC) at Falcon Stadium on Saturday in a classic Armed Forces dual. Kickoff is slated for 12:00 PM Eastern, as the Falcons host Army for the first time since 2019, winning in a 17-13 final. Read on for the Army vs the Air Force prediction and more free NCAAF picks.
Army Snap 2-Game Streak
Army was unable to string together its third straight win as they fell at Tulane in a 24-17 final. The Army was ultimately defeated with a touchdown scored with 27 ticks left on the clock. The Black Knights were led by QB Cale Hellums, who ran for 163 yards and two scores on 38 carries. The Army went 4-4 on 4th down tries, but the defense failed to log a sack and allowed over 400 yards.
Army enters this contest averaging 23.3 points per game, which ranks 89th nationally. They generate 353.3 total yards per game, sitting near the bottom third of the country. The rushing attack remains the foundation of the offense in the triple option, averaging 275.6 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. With over 62 rushes per game, the Army runs the most in college football. Through the air, production is limited at just 78 passing yards per game, though efficiency on early downs has slightly improved from last season. The Army converts 41.05% of its third downs, while maintaining an 88.89% red zone scoring rate. Keeping the offense on the field is always a plus for this style of offense.
Key Team Stats:
- Total Yards Per Game: 353.3
- 3rd-Down Conversion Rate: 41.05%
- Red Zone Scoring Rate: 88.89%
Defensively, the Black Knights are allowing 23 points per game, landing them just inside the top 50 in the country. Opponents are averaging 349.5 total yards per contest and 5.6 yards per play. The run defense has been respectable, giving up 132.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry, while the secondary allows roughly 218.6 passing yards per outing. Third-down defense sits at 45.83%, which is one of the worst conversion rates in the nation, and opponents are scoring touchdowns on 81.25% of their red zone trips.
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Falcons Nab Second Win Of Season
Air Force snapped its five-game losing streak as it topped Wyoming at home in a 24-21 final. Quarterback Liam Szarka led the way with 141 yards, and he logged his 5th straight 100-yard rushing game of the season. Kade Frew added 49 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. Air Force finished with 363 yards, as 330 of those came on the ground. The defense allowed Wyoming to convert on 50% of its 3rd down tries and surrendered over 400 yards.
The Falcons enter this weekend averaging 34.2 points per game, which lands them right outside the top 20 in America—generating about 480 yards per game, with roughly 286.8 of those rushing yards. Their offense averages 6.8 yards per play, converts around 41% of third downs, and runs about 70.8 plays per game. Szarka hasn't had to throw often, but he has been careless with the ball and holds one of the highest interception rates in the nation. That said, his average completion depth of 11.4 yards also stands at 2nd in football.
Key Offense Stats:
- Points Per Game: 34.2
- Total Yards Per Game: 479.5
- Red Zone Scoring Rate: 93.33%
On defense, the Falcons have allowed 41.3 points per game against FBS opponents (37.7ppg counting FCS Bucknell), which has them in the bottom five in America. Opponents are gaining about 484.1 yards per contest and averaging over eight yards per play. The run defense has been abysmal as opponents are rushing for over six yards per carry. Along with that, opposing quarterbacks are completing throws at over a 71% clip. The pass rush has been nonexistent at times, which has only made the 3rd down conversion rate slide. Currently, opponents are moving the sticks on nearly 57% of their 3rd down tries.
Army vs Air Force Pick
Side Pick for Army vs. Air Force
- Air Force -1.5 (4 units)
Not only has Air Force won 22 of the last 26 against Army at Falcon Field, but the Falcons have now won both of their games at home this season. The offense has been able to move the football at one of the most effective rates in football, and they sit in the top 20 in red zone scoring and 3rd down conversion rate. The Army has allowed chunk plays this season, and its inability to disrupt the backfield should allow the Falcons to move the ball here.
Air Force +1.5
Total Pick for Army vs. Air Force
- Over 48.5 (4 units)
Watching the Air Force play this season is like watching a track meet. The Falcons will look to push the pace any chance they get. While the Army likes to play slow, its run-heavy offense should find quick success against the Air Force here. The Army has shown they will be aggressive when they need to be, going for it on 4th down four times last game. Look for both offenses to find a way to put points on the board here.
Over 48.5
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