Baylor Bears vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction and Picks - November 22, 2025
Use Code SSWC Big 12 college football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Baylor vs Arizona prediction locked and loaded for you. Baylor enters this game off a 55-28 home loss to Utah to drop to 5-5. Arizona comes in off a 30-24 road win over Cincinnati, which moves them to 7-3 on the year. Read on to see our Baylor vs Arizona prediction.
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Baylor Was No Match For The Utes
Baylor comes into this matchup after being overwhelmed at home in a 55-28 loss to Utah, a game where the defense simply had no answers for the Utes’ explosive rushing attack. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson did everything he could to keep the Bears in it, throwing for 430 yards and three touchdowns, but he also tossed two interceptions and was forced to put the ball in the air nearly 60 times. Wideout Josh Cameron was a bright spot with 13 catches for 165 yards and two scores, while Ashtyn Hawkins added 119 receiving yards. Despite piling up 563 total yards, Baylor couldn’t overcome Utah’s big-play runs and defensive pressure.
Robertson has been the centerpiece of Baylor’s offense all season, throwing for 3,210 yards and 29 touchdowns across ten games. He’s complemented by a deep receiving corps, with Cameron (746 yards, 7 TDs), Hawkins (578 yards), and Kaden Prentice (282 yards, 6 TDs) all capable of moving the chains. Tight end Michael Trigg has chipped in 649 yards and six scores, giving Robertson plenty of options. On the ground, Bryson Washington leads the way with 721 yards and six touchdowns, though the Bears’ rushing attack has been inconsistent. Baylor’s offense ranks second nationally in passing yards per game (324.4), but turnovers have been a major issue, with 19 giveaways on the season.
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Defensively, Baylor has struggled, ranking 119th in points allowed at 31.9 per game. While their pass defense has been respectable, holding opponents to 195.5 yards per game, the run defense has been porous, giving up nearly 200 yards per contest. That weakness was on full display against Utah, and it’s a concern heading into a matchup with Arizona’s balanced offense. For Baylor to compete, Robertson must protect the football and continue to lean on his receivers, while the defense needs to find ways to limit explosive plays.
Arizona Grabs Big Road Win Against Cincinnati
Arizona enters this game riding momentum after a 30-24 upset win at Cincinnati, a victory that showcased both resilience and playmaking ability. Quarterback Noah Fifita was sharp once again, completing 23 of 31 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown, while running back Kedrick Reescano delivered the go-ahead score on a 50-yard burst. Wideout Kris Hutson was the top target, hauling in eight catches for 123 yards, and kicker Michael Salgado-Medina redeemed himself with a clutch 51-yard field goal late after missing two earlier attempts. The Wildcats’ defense sealed the win with a turnover on downs in the final minute, giving Arizona back-to-back road victories.
Fifita has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the Big 12, throwing for 2,494 yards with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions while completing nearly 65% of his passes. His chemistry with Hutson (512 yards, 3 TDs) and Jacob Whatley (418 yards, 4 TDs) has been critical, while Tanner Spivey has emerged as a big-play threat with 317 yards and six touchdowns at over 21 yards per catch. On the ground, Jonah Coleman Mahdi leads with 639 yards, while Reescano has added 324 yards and five scores, giving Arizona multiple options in the backfield. The Wildcats average 36.3 points per game, ranking 19th nationally, and have been efficient at protecting the football with only 10 turnovers all season.
Defensively, Arizona has been strong against the pass, allowing just 177.2 yards per game, ranking 15th nationally. They’ve forced 14 takeaways, including two interceptions at Cincinnati, and their ability to generate timely stops has kept them in games. The run defense has been shakier, giving up 163 yards per contest, but the Wildcats have shown improvement in recent weeks. Against Baylor, Arizona’s secondary will be tested by Robertson’s high-volume passing attack, but if they can limit big plays and force the Bears into mistakes, their balanced offense should give them the edge.
Baylor vs Arizona Pick
Baylor vs Arizona Spread Pick
- Baylor +7 (3 Units)
Baylor +7 has real appeal here because the Bears’ passing game can keep them competitive even against Arizona’s strong secondary. Sawyer Robertson has thrown for over 3,200 yards and 29 touchdowns, and with weapons like Josh Cameron and Michael Trigg, Baylor has the firepower to trade scores. Arizona’s defense has been solid against the pass, but they’ve shown vulnerability against balanced attacks, and Baylor’s ability to spread the field makes them dangerous as an underdog. The Bears’ defense is shaky against the run, but their offense has consistently produced enough to stay within striking distance in high-scoring games.
The betting trends also line up strongly in Baylor’s favor. Arizona is just 5-23 ATS as home chalk of 3 or more when coming off back-to-back wins, a spot where they’ve historically struggled to cover. Meanwhile, Baylor has thrived in this role, going 18-3 ATS as a conference dog of 4 or more against an opponent off a straight-up and ATS win. That combination of matchup dynamics and historical trends makes Baylor +7 a sharp play, with the Bears positioned to keep this one tight and potentially steal it late.
Baylor vs Arizona Over/Under Pick
- Over 62 (1 Unit)
The Over 62 makes sense here because both Baylor and Arizona bring high-powered offenses with quarterbacks who can stretch the field and playmakers at every level. Sawyer Robertson has thrown for over 3,200 yards and 29 touchdowns, leading a Baylor attack that ranks second nationally in passing yards, while Noah Fifita has been equally sharp for Arizona with 2,494 yards and 24 scores. The Wildcats average 36.3 points per game, and Baylor sits at 33.2, so both teams are accustomed to shootouts. Add in Baylor’s porous run defense (nearly 200 yards allowed per game) and Arizona’s tendency to give up chunk plays on the ground, and this matchup sets up for long drives, explosive strikes, and a pace that should push the total past the number.
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