Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Picks and Prediction - September 27, 2025
Big 12 sides battle in Stillwater on Saturday and to make sure you are prepared for action, we’re dropping Baylor vs. Oklahoma State predictions and picks to help you make the winning play. The Bears (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) fell against Arizona State last Saturday, 27-24, as -3 favorites at home. The Cowboys (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) were upset by Tulsa, 19-12, as -10 favorites at home last weekend, leading to big changes for the program. Kickoff from Boone Pickens Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 EST and if you are still struggling to pick winners, we have the strongest College Football Picks around.
Baylor stung by slow offensive start
The Bears opened their Big 12 slate last weekend but were unable to keep a two-game winning streak alive as their offense took too long to get going against Arizona State. They were tied at halftime in that game, but didn’t score in the third quarter. Overall, the offense went for 357 total yards and 18 first downs. The defense allowed Arizona State to gain 400 yards on the day, with 26 first downs.
Coming into this matchup, Baylor’s offense is averaging 34.5 points and 477.3 total yards per game. They have the third-best passing offense in the Big 12, averaging 338.5 yards per game. Sawyer Robertson has been the most active passer in the land, going 109-174 for 1,320 yards, all tops in the country. The senior has also connected on 13 TD passes, second most in the nation. Five players have at least 15 catches and Josh Cameron leads the group with 21 catches, 309 yards, and three TDs. With the run, the Bears average 138.8 yards per game. Bryson Washington ranks ninth in the country with 415 rushing yards and is tied for 30th with four touchdowns. The back also has nine catches for 41 yards.
On defense, the Bears have allowed 367 total yards, 14th in the Big 12, and 29.3 points per game, 15th in the Big 12. They have the third-worst rushing defense in the conference, giving up 186 yards per game. Against the pass, they are giving up 181 yards per game, eighth in the conference. They’ve been able to sack the opposing QB six times and pick them off four times. Keaton Thomas leads the Big 12 with 38 tackles and fellow linebacker Emar’rion Winston leads the Bears with two sacks.
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Team notes
- Washington has rushed for over 110 yards in each of his last three games.
- Kobe Prince is tied for 10th in the country with four receiving touchdowns.
- Connor Hawkins is 18-for-18 on PATs and 4-for-4 on FGs, his longest from 53 yards.
- Tied for 15th in the nation with 102 first downs.
Oklahoma State pulls mid-week coaching change
Just three games into the season, the Mike Gundy era came to an end, with the 20+ year head coach being shown the door earlier this week following the team’s upset loss at home against Tulsa. The move comes in the wake of back-to-back losses for the Cowboys, including a 66-point blowout at the hands of No. 6 Oregon. Offensive coordinator Doug Meachem takes over as interim head coach.
Oklahoma State has the lowest scoring offense among Big 12 teams and the third lowest in the country, averaging 14 points per game. Their 324.3 total yards per game average was the second-worst mark in the conference. The running game has treated them a bit better, with backs averaging 152 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. Two players have over 100 yards, with Rodney Fields Jr. leading the team with 143 yards on 27 carries. The freshman, who did not play in the opener, had 113 rushing yards versus Tulsa. The Cowboys’ passing game ranks last in the Big 12, averaging 172.3 yards per game. Zane Flores has completed only 57% of his passes for 417 yards and has yet to throw a touchdown. No player has double-digit receptions and only three have seven or more. The offensive line has allowed six sacks.
The Cowboys are allowing 31.7 points per game, the worst scoring defense in the Big 12. They’ve allowed 426.7 total yards per game, the 18th worst mark in the country. They have the ninth-worst run defense in the land, allowing their opponents to rush for 211 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. Against the pass, they give up 215.7 yards per game. The defense has managed to record only four sacks and an interception. Sven defenders have double-digit tackle totals and three have more than 20. Linebackers Bruan McCoy Jr. and Brandon Rawls each have a team-high 26 tackles.
Team notes
- Logan Ward is a clean 3-for-3 on PATs and 5-for-5 of FGs.
- Linebacker Wendell Gregory is responsible for three of the team’s sacks.
- Running backs have a combined 10 receptions for the Cowboys.
- The kickoff return defense is tied for 17th in the country, allowing an average of 14 yards per return.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma Picks
Spread Pick for Baylor vs. Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State +20.5 (5 units)
Oklahoma State has a lot on its plate, to say the least. To begin with, they are working with their second-string quarterback since Hauss Hejny broke his foot in the season opener. Then there is the matter of the coaching change and the massive swirl of commotion that will cause leading to this game. On top of all of that, they have to face a relentless Baylor offense that can beat you in a million different ways. However, this is a blueprint on how to slow them, and Arizona State did an excellent job at that last weekend. While the Cowboys may not be as stout as the Sun Devils, they are still plenty capable of slowing things down. They’ll need to do the same on the offensive end and Baylor’s defense is susceptible to the run, so look for the hosts to grind it out. Teams almost always respond in that first game after a coach gets fired and in this particular instance, the Cowboys respond enough to keep this game close. This is a ton of points to heap on a home team. Oklahoma State is 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five games versus Baylor.
Talk the Cowboys getting the points.
Over/Under Pick for Baylor vs. Oklahoma
- Under 57.5 (4 units)
When these two met last season, they combined for 66 points, hitting over against a 64.5-point total. You’d be hard-pressed to pick an under with Baylor’s offense involved, but after last week, you have to consider it. Arizona State did well to keep them from busting out big plays and in turn worked the clock to their advantage. Oklahoma State will need to follow this blueprint. They do not have an offense that can go blow-for-blow here and their best opportunity to control the game is to control the clock. That means long, sustained drives for both teams. The under is 3-2 in the last five meetings between the teams, and 4-3 between the teams this season.
Take the under.
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