Baylor vs. SMU Picks and Predictions, Saturday September 6, 2025
College Football could not have gotten off to a better start than they did in week one, and this week we'll see some blockbuster showdowns, including today's Baylor vs. SMU prediction.
The Baylor Bears (0-1) suffered a tough defeat in week one, and with one of the toughest conferences in College Football to contend with, they'll need a big upset here to keep their hopes of a successful 2025 campaign alive.
On Saturday, they battle the 17 SMU Mustangs (1-0), a program that has only continued to grow in recent years, and after a statement-making win in week one, they've proven that they're a contender to win the ACC in 2025. Read on to see our Baylor vs. SMU prediction.
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Can Baylor avoid an 0-2 start to the year?
The Baylor Bears have had some mixed success in recent seasons, and after finishing the 2024 regular season with six straight wins, there was hope that they could continue that momentum over to the 2025 campaign. With the same QB1 and RB1 from a season ago as well, the offense was hoping for consistency and that chemistry to carry over, but after a tough loss in week one, they're already facing another disappointing season unless they can bounce back in this one.
In that week one defeat, the Bears' defense struggled mightily, allowing 415 total yards despite holding the Auburn Tigers to just 11 completions through the air, with their opponents rushing for an incredible 307 yards in the game. There were some bright spots, as QB Sawyer Robertson tossed 419 yards and three touchdowns of his own, but with the Tigers rushing game too much to stop, the team would come up short in their home opener by a score of 38-24.
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Can SMU continue its recent dominance?
In the past few seasons, there's been no better story in the NCAA than the SMU Mustangs, as the team went 11-2 in the regular season back in 2024, and after a statement-making win to start the new season, they're ranked No. 17 in the early polls. This season, the Mustangs return one of the best dual-threat QB's in the nation in Kevin Jennings, and with a very winnable schedule early, this team has a chance to make some big-time statements early in the 2025 season.
In week one, the offense once again steered the ship, with Jennings totaling 260 passing yards and 2 scores, with the offense combining to manage 400 yards on East Texas A&M in what was a dominant outing. Defensively, however, this team was just as good, limiting their opponents to just three points in the first three quarters as they forced three turnovers on the day leading to the 42-13 victory.
Baylor vs. SMU pick
Spread Pick for Baylor vs. SMU
- SMU -2.5 (4 units)
These two schools have met just four times before, with the last coming back in 2016, and based on recent precedent, it's easy to see why the SMU Mustangs come into this one as a tight favorite after going 5-1 in games played at home last season.
On top of that, the Bears were beaten thoroughly at home in week one, and with the Mustangs looking much sharper on both sides of the ball, expect the No. 17-ranked team in the nation to make a statement in this matchup.
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| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Baylor vs. SMU
- Over 62.5 (4 units)
In week one of the 2025 season, both of these teams got their offense going with each tallying 400 or more yards, and with the Bears giving up 38 to a talented Auburn Tigers team, that opens them up to be dominated again by this loaded Mustangs offense.
For the Bears, the over sits at 8-1-1 in their last 10 overall games, as they've allowed 35 or more points in five of their last six road games, and for the Mustangs, the over comes in at 5-5 in their past 10, with an average of 38 points scored in their last eight played against unranked opponents.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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