Baylor vs UCF Picks and Predictions for Friday, October 30, 2026
Baylor and UCF have identical records heading into Friday's Big 12 matchup, but they're coming off very different Saturdays. Baylor lost a heartbreaker at Kansas, while UCF pulled off an overtime win against BYU. The Bears visit the Knights at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, with kickoff at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Baylor is 4-3 overall and seventh in the Big 12 standings at 2-2. UCF is also 4-3 and 2-2 in conference play, sitting 10th in the standings. The Knights are favored by 2.5 points, with a 48.5 total. Check our free NCAAF picks for more Friday action.
Baylor Bears Need to Find Their Offense Again
Baylor had every reason to be frustrated after Saturday's 25-24 loss at Kansas. It was the Bears' second straight defeat, following a 17-6 home loss to TCU. Just two games earlier, Baylor had blown out Arizona State 55-19, and it beat Colorado 23-13 before that. The drop in production has been dramatic: six points against TCU and 24 against Kansas after that big night in Tempe. Baylor has thrown for 1,716 yards this season but rushed for only 901, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground.
DJ Lagway has completed 93 of 186 passes for 1,116 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Nate Bennett has also seen time at quarterback, throwing for 581 yards and six touchdowns with two picks. Dawson Pendergrass leads the rushing attack with 327 yards, while Caden Knighten has 279. Gavin Freeman has 49 catches for 555 yards and two scores. Jayden McGowan has turned nine receptions into 210 yards and four touchdowns. On defense, Travion Barnes leads with 38 tackles, and Daniel Cobbs has recorded three sacks.
Injuries: C. Redding and T. Williams Jr. are out.
UCF Knights Coming Off a Big Home Win
UCF had been waiting a while for another conference victory before BYU came to Orlando on Saturday. The Knights beat the Cougars 39-31 in double overtime, putting an end to consecutive losses against Houston and Oklahoma State. Those defeats were both on the road, with UCF scoring 17 against Houston and 28 against Oklahoma State. The Knights also own a 21-13 home win against TCU and a 44-30 victory over Georgia State. UCF has rushed for 973 yards in seven games, gaining five yards per carry.
Duke Watson has 483 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 70 carries, an average of 6.9 yards per attempt. Taevion Swint has added 162 rushing yards, and Landen Chambers has 139 with three scores. Keyone Jenkins has completed 70.3% of his passes for 806 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Josh Derry leads the receivers with 304 yards, while Waden Charles has 199. Tackett Curtis has made 39 tackles and Demari Henderson has two interceptions. UCF has six interceptions as a team.
Injuries: Alonza Barnett III, D. Thomas Jr. and Lewis Carter are out. Dylan Wade is questionable.
Key To The Game
Baylor's passing game has to get moving after two disappointing losses. UCF has been gaining five yards per rush, with Watson its biggest threat. Keeping Watson from breaking long runs is a priority for the Bears.
Baylor vs UCF Game Pick
- UCF Knights -2.5
UCF has beaten TCU at home, while Baylor managed just six points against the Horned Frogs. Watson's 6.9 yards per carry gives the Knights a running game they can rely on, and Jenkins has completed more than 70% of his throws. Baylor has enough receiving talent to keep things close, but its offense has stumbled twice in a row. UCF wins and covers the 2.5-point spread at home Friday night.
Baylor vs UCF Over/Under Pick
- Under 48.5
Baylor scored only six against TCU and 24 at Kansas, while UCF has been inconsistent from game to game. The Knights scored 39 against BYU, but managed 17 at Houston and 21 against TCU. Both defenses have shown they can keep opponents from running up big totals. UCF relies on Watson to move the chains, and Baylor has struggled to finish drives recently. The under 48.5 is the pick Friday.