Boise State vs. Air Force Prediction and Picks - Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code SSWC Boise State opens its Mountain West campaign on Saturday with a visit to take on Air Force in Week 4 of the college football season. You can get the inside line on this game and see our great tips for side and total bets with our Boise State Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons Mean Green prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 5pm MT (7pm ET) at the Air Force Academy in Colorado, home of the Falcons. The last game between these conference rivals took place in November 2023 and was won 27-19 by Boise State.
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Broncos struggling without ace RB
Boise State (1-1) faces its first test in conference play this Saturday after winning the Mountain West last season with a perfect 7-0 record. The Broncos went all the way to the CFP quarters in head coach Spencer Danielson's first year in charge, eventually going down to Penn State. This offseason, Boise State had to work out how to replace ace running back and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, who was selected with the sixth pick of the Draft by the Lions, and so far that question remains unanswered.
The Broncos were blown out in Week 1, 31-7 by South Florida, losing their AP ranking (they were ranked No. 25 in preseason) as a result; and a big win next time out over FCS program Eastern Washington hardly atoned for that poor start. Against South Florida, Boise was held to 122 rushing yards, a huge drop-off from the 240.1 yds/G it averaged during the 2024 season, with Jeanty alone accounting for 2601 yards and 29 TDs. The onus will fall more than ever on QB Maddux Madsen, and so far, he has looked up to the challenge, clocking up 266 yds/G through the air with three TDs and zero INTs while also getting 33 yds/G and a TD on the ground.
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Falcons powerless in Week 2
There were no surprises in store for the Air Force Falcons (1-1, 0-1 in MWC) as they started their conference campaign with a loss last Saturday. Air Force was overpowered 49-30 on the road by Utah State, a result that sent the program back to earth after opening with a 49-13 blowout against FCS Bucknell.
The ongoing uncertainty at quarterback is not helping Air Force. Josh Johnson and Liam Szarka split duties against Utah State with mixed results. Szarka completed just 6-14 of his passing attempts for 67 yards and an INT, but also picked up three rushing TDs. Johnson went 5-9 with 112 yards and another INT, with Air Force giving up a total of three turnovers, which left the program on its back foot throughout the game. The Falcons' defense had a rough outing, giving up 473 yards and a massive 8.3 yards per play to Utah State and allowing the Aggies to score seven touchdowns in total and convert 100% of their red zone opportunities.
Boise State vs. Air Force pick
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Air Force
- Boise State -10.5 (5 units)
This is a great opportunity for Boise State to show off its offensive prowess against a team struggling in the backfield. Madsen, in particular, will feel confident going in against Air Force: the Falcons have given up an average of 228 yards per game through the air while allowing opponents to complete 71.7% of attempts. Utah State put up 22 first downs and seven scores against Air Force and Boise State will be looking for similar success in a game in which the Broncos should cover comfortably.
Take the Broncos.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Air Force
- Under 51.5 (5 units)
Air Force games have been packed with action so far in 2025, and I am backing that to continue when it meets Boise, which, even without its star RB, is still capable of turning it on when on offense. The Falcons rank 34th in NCAAF with an average of 39.5 ppg, while on defense, it rank down in 113th, allowing 36.0 ppg for an average total of 75.5 points so far. They are 2-0 on the over in 2025 and finished 4-3 on the over last year in conference games. The Broncos were 4-3 on the over at home last year.
Take the over.
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