Boise State Broncos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Picks and Predictions – Friday, October 24, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Boise State Broncos are visiting the Nevada Wolf Pack this week in what's expected to be a lopsided Mountain West matchup, and we're previewing the lines and odds in our Boise State vs. Nevada prediction. Boise State is 3-0 to open conference play and 5-2 overall, while Nevada is 1-6 after falling in each of their last five games. Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Friday, October 24.
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Boise State 5-2, alone atop Mountain West after UNLV win
The Boise State Broncos stand alone at the top of the Mountain West Standings at 3-0 in conference play. They're 5-2 overall with losses at South Florida (34-7) and Notre Dame (28-7) on their record, but they earned four votes toward the AP Top 25 heading into Week 8 after hosting an undefeated UNLV team and winning 56-31 in Week 7.
The Broncos and Rebels weren't far apart in the first half – each team alternated scoring drives, with the Rebels settling once for a field goal, en route to a 28-24 Broncos lead at halftime. That game script was quickly abandoned in the second half, during which Boise State secured three touchdowns on offense and another on defense before UNLV scored again near the end of the fourth quarter. It wasn't a perfect game–the Rebels' first touchdown was assisted by both Maddux Madsen throwing an interception and Malik Sherrod fumbling a punt return–but the Broncos' second-half offense was dominant enough to render those mistakes moot.
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Madsen completed 14 of 23 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns, averaging only a 60.9 completion percentage but 11.0 yards per attempt. He enters Week 8 at 20th in the FBS in passing yards (1,823) and tied for 18th with 15 touchdowns. Dylan Riley carried the standard for the Broncos' game-winning ground game, racking up 201 yards and a touchdown on only 15 carries. He's carried the ball 15 or more times in four of the team's last five games, but the game against UNLV marked his first trip to the endzone since he put up a 171-yard, four-touchdown performance against Air Force in late September.
WR Ben Ford (21 catches, 325 yds, 5 TDs) is out for this game due to an undisclosed injury.
Nevada still 0-6 against FBS teams heading into Week 8
At 0-3 in conference play, the Nevada Wolf Pack are the lone Mountain West team still searching for their first conference win heading into Week 8. They're also searching for their first win against an FBS opponent – the Wolf Pack are 1-6 overall with only a Week 2 win over FCS Sacramento State, whom they only beat 20-17, separating them from a perfectly winless record.
Optimistically, Nevada played the New Mexico Lobos much closer in Week 7 than the oddsmakers projected. The Wolf Pack won the turnover battle 2-0. Freshman quarterback Carter Jones completed 23 of 29 passes for 202 yards, averaging a 79.3 completion percentage and 7.0 yards per attempt in only his third game as the team's starter. Nevada entered this game as 14.5-point underdogs, and they never trailed by more than 11 on the way to a narrow 22-24 loss.
That aside, Nevada ranks 133rd out of 136 FBS teams with only 15.6 points per game on offense. They're 125th in passing yards (159.0), T-85th in rushing yards (143.0), and 96th in points allowed (28.0) per game. Jeff Choate is in his second year as the head coach at Nevada and is 0-10 in Mountain West games thus far. It's hard to fathom that streak coming to an end this week. WR Marcus Bellon (15 catches) is questionable for this game with an undisclosed injury.
Boise State vs. Nevada Pick
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Nevada
- Nevada +21.5 (-110) (4 Units)
Since 2010, Boise State is 8-2 in 10 meetings with Nevada but only 3-7 against the spread. Their last meeting came in early November of 2024–Boise State entered the game with a 7-1 record and a 5-2-1 record ATS, was a 22.5-point home favorite against Nevada, and only won 28-21. Nevada went 0-7 against Mountain West opponents in 2024; their 24-22 loss to New Mexico last week is the closest they've been to winning a conference game since Choate took over as head coach. I'll take the Wolf Pack to keep things surprisingly close at home, with their matchup history against the Broncos and another generous spread to work with.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Nevada
- Under 51.5 (-115) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 5-2 in Nevada games this season, 2-1 in Boise State road games, and 8-2 in the last ten historical meetings between these teams. Nevada is coming off a season-high 22 points against New Mexico, marking only their second time since beating Sacramento State 20-17 that they've hit the 20-point mark this season. Defensively, they've only given up two 40-point games since Choate took over the program ahead of the 2024 season.
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