Boise State Broncos vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Boise State Broncos will visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 6, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction. The Broncos have won three straight after opening the season with a loss to USF, while Notre Dame has won two straight after close early-season losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 4.
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How will Boise State hold up against Irish?
The Boise State Broncos are 3-1 and near the top of the Mountain West early in the season, but they'll face one more opponent in Notre Dame before getting into the meat of their conference schedule. It'll be a notable benchmark game for the Broncos, who entered the season in the AP Top 25 before losing to South Florida and aren't likely to face another ranked team in the regular season.
The Broncos won handily last Saturday, hosting the Appalachian State Mountaineers for a game that turned into a 47-14 rout. Boise State gained 473 yards on offense, converted 25 first downs, went 9/18 on third down, and didn't commit a turnover. Their defense held the Mountaineers to 184 yards of offense and nine first downs, got off the field on 11 of 13 third downs, and recovered four turnovers. Junior quarterback Maddux Madsen finished the game with 321 yards and four touchdowns while completing 25 of 37 passes, putting him up to 1,129 yards and a 9-1 TD-INT ratio on the season. Linebacker Boen Phillips and cornerback A'Marion McCoy each finished the game with a pick-six, and the defense held Mountaineers starting quarterback A.J. Swann to 64 yards and 2.7 yards per attempt overall.
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Boise State enters Week 6 ranked 20th in passing yards (299.0), tied for 20th in rushing yards (221.0), and 24th in points (38.5) per game. It'll be impressive if those numbers remain remotely intact after they visit South Bend.
Can Notre Dame continue rolling with a dynamic backfield?
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are No. 21 in the AP Top 25 heading into Week 6, rising a spot after winning 56-13 on the road against Arkansas. They've rebounded nicely from a 0-2 start with close losses to ranked opponents in Miami (27-24) and Texas A&M (41-40), having now posted 56 points in consecutive blowout wins over Purdue and the Razorbacks.
Last Saturday's game was the best of the season for freshman quarterback C.J. Carr, who completed 22 of 30 passes for 354 yards and four touchdowns. He's now thrown six touchdowns without an interception over his last two games after posting a 3-2 TD-INT ratio in the first two contests, and the team's ground game still looked like a pronounced strength against the Razorbacks. Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love split the work nearly evenly, combining for 143 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries. Both players contributed substantially in the passing game as well, combining for 105 yards and three touchdowns on six receptions.
Overall, the Irish rank 16th among FBS teams in passing yards (306.5), 59th in rushing yards (173.3), and 11th in points (44.0) per game. It's an exceptionally strong record for a team with two games against ranked opponents and no easy games against FCS opponents, and it's rightfully made them a heavy favorite ahead of a home tilt against Boise State.
Boise State vs. Notre Dame Pick
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Notre Dame
- Boise State +20.5 (-110) (4 Units)
Boise State has only played a handful of out-of-conference games since Spencer Danielson took over as head coach in 2024, and this is the first time they've entered as an underdog by 20 or more points. They lost two games in 2024: a 37-34 road loss to Oregon, which they entered as 18-point underdogs, and their 31-14 loss to Boise State in the playoffs, which they entered as 11.5-point underdogs. The Broncos have committed one total turnover since losing to South Florida; they should stay within 20 points of Notre Dame if they stay on that track and avoid giving away possessions. Notre Dame's defense has also been leaky this season as they are allowing 389 yards per game, including 268.8 yards per contest in the air. Boise State throws it for 299 yards per game and will take advantage.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Notre Dame
- Over 62.5 (-110) (5 Units)
Notre Dame has excelled at many things this season, but consistently shutting opponents down on defense hasn't been one of them. The Team Total Over is 4-0 in their games, and I'd expect it to hit again at 62.5 after the Irish put up 56 points by themselves in two straight contests. Boise State gave away three turnovers in their 34-7 loss to South Florida, but they still gained 378 yards and 25 first downs. They aren't likely to keep up with the 147 total points they scored against Eastern Washington, Air Force, and App State, but it'd be surprising if the Broncos' offense hit a wall hard enough for this game to fall below the total.
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