Boise State vs Washington Huskies for Prediction, Picks, and Odds Movement for the LA Bowl December 13 2025
Boise State vs Washington prediction for the LA Bowl, a matchup that doubles as a Chris Petersen tribute with his former schools squaring off on a fast track in Southern California. Below we break down the latest odds, full line movement history, and matchup edges before offering our best bets and a projected final score. For more previews and analysis, visit the latest college football picks.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Washington -8.5
- Total Pick: Over 51.5
- Projected Final Score: Washington 35, Boise State 26
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Odds and Line Movement
Oddsmakers opened Washington as more than a touchdown favorite and the market has largely agreed, with public money leaning heavily toward the Huskies. The total has dipped slightly from the low fifties, but this matchup still profiles as a game where both offenses enjoy favorable conditions in a dome environment.
Opening Odds
| Market | Boise State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Market | Boise State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Boise State | Washington | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 11:15:08am | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) | WASH 92%, 63% |
| 12/08 | 08:00:16am | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) | WASH 94%, 72% |
| 12/08 | 07:11:27am | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) | WASH 92%, 72% |
| 12/07 | 04:27:07pm | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) | |
| 12/07 | 04:27:02pm | +7.5 (-105) | -7.5 (-115) | |
| 12/07 | 04:19:46pm | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-104) | |
| 12/07 | 04:12:43pm | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 10:11:50am | 51.5 o(-110) | 51.5 u(-110) | |
| 12/08 | 08:00:16am | 52 o(-115) | 52 u(-105) | |
| 12/08 | 07:11:28am | 52 o(-110) | 52 u(-110) | |
| 12/07 | 08:30:06pm | 52.5 o(-115) | 52.5 u(-105) | |
| 12/07 | 06:05:54pm | 53.5 o(-115) | 53.5 u(-105) | |
| 12/07 | 04:12:43pm | 52.5 o(-110) | 52.5 u(-110) |
Boise State vs Washington Key Matchups and Handicap
The LA Bowl sets up as a contrast between a Boise State team that has quietly surged down the stretch and a Washington program coming off a flat finish to its season. These schools met in the opening week of the 2023 campaign, when Washington rolled to a 56–19 victory. While that result looms large in the narrative, the current handicap focuses more on recent form and the matchup dynamics inside SoFi Stadium.
For Boise State, this feels like a normal game week. The Broncos just handled UNLV at home in the Mountain West Championship Game and had a bye week in early November, making this their fifth straight week with a game. That workload could add up on the defensive side, but it has not prevented the offense from trending upward, especially with Maddux Madsen returning from injury.
Boise State Offense vs Washington Defense
Madsen’s return was immediately felt in the conference title game. He went 17 of 31 for 289 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Rebels, a performance that restored life to a passing attack that had sputtered over the previous month. With a dome and fast track in Los Angeles, Boise State’s ability to push the ball vertically should be enhanced even further.
Washington’s defense has been vulnerable to precisely that dimension. The Huskies sit No. 83 in EPA per pass attempt allowed and just No. 59 in passing success rate allowed, numbers that suggest they can be stressed by efficient downfield throws. If Boise State’s offensive line continues to protect Madsen, explosive gains through the air are very much on the table.
UW Ground Game vs Boise State Front
On the other side, Washington’s offense maintains a clear edge on the ground. The Huskies rank top twenty in EPA per rush attempt and rushing success rate, a combination that points to consistent early down success and favorable short yardage situations. That is particularly important when facing a Boise State defense that checks in at No. 84 in rushing success rate allowed.
With those metrics in mind, Washington should be able to establish its rushing identity early and then layer in play action shots against a Broncos defense that may already be worn down after a long stretch of consecutive games. Any defensive fatigue is more likely to show up in the second half, where Washington’s physical rushing style can start to tilt the game.
Washington’s season ended with a bit of a whimper, with late losses to Wisconsin and Oregon, but the underlying rushing efficiency suggests the offense itself has not fallen off. Combined with Boise State’s rejuvenated passing game, this matchup lines up as one where both teams can sustain drives and turn possessions into points.
BSU vs UW Betting Trends
- Boise State is coming off a home win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game.
- The Broncos have played five straight weeks heading into this bowl, increasing the chance for defensive fatigue.
- Washington closed the regular season with losses to Wisconsin and Oregon.
- The last meeting between these programs was a 56–19 Washington victory in 2023.
Boise State vs Washington Key Injuries and Notes
- Maddux Madsen recently returned from injury and threw for 289 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the conference title game.
- This bowl is played in a dome on a fast track, a positive for both offenses compared to their typical home environments in Seattle and Idaho.
- Handicap leans assume no major opt outs materially alter the core personnel for either side.
Broncos vs Huskies ATS and Total Picks
From an against the spread perspective, both teams bring matchup advantages that point to sustained offensive output. Boise State’s passing game is trending up with Madsen back under center, and Washington’s pass defense metrics indicate they are susceptible to precisely the type of efficiency the Broncos showed against UNLV.
At the same time, Washington’s rushing attack owns a substantial advantage over a Boise State front that grades poorly in rushing success rate allowed. The Huskies should be able to pound away on early downs, stay ahead of the chains, and eventually wear down a defense that has been on the field every week for over a month.
With the number sitting just over a touchdown, our lean is that Washington’s balanced offense and superior rushing metrics eventually create enough margin to cover, especially if Boise State’s defense wilts late. The total, meanwhile, benefits from both teams enjoying favorable offensive matchups in a controlled environment, pushing this game toward the over despite modest downward movement in the market.
- ATS Pick: Washington -8.5
- Total Pick: Over 51.5
Boise State vs Washington Final Score Prediction
The ingredients are in place for an entertaining, high scoring bowl game. Boise State’s passing resurgence should keep the Broncos within striking distance for much of the night, but Washington’s rushing efficiency and ability to finish drives give the Huskies the edge.
- Projected Final Score: Washington 34, Boise State 27
Stats to Know for Boise State vs Washington
- Washington previously defeated Boise State 56–19 in the 2023 season opener.
- Boise State has played five straight weeks, with this bowl following a Mountain West Championship win over UNLV.
- Maddux Madsen returned from injury to complete 17 of 31 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the title game.
- Washington’s defense ranks No. 83 in EPA per pass allowed and No. 59 in passing success rate allowed.
- The Huskies are top twenty in EPA per rush and rushing success rate, while Boise State is No. 84 in rushing success rate allowed.
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