Bowling Green vs Nebraska Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Bowling Green Falcons travel to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska, to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on FS1. Bowling Green enters at 0-1 after suffering a 20-13 home loss to Tarleton State, while Nebraska is 1-0 following a 49-21 victory over Ohio. The current betting market has Nebraska favored by 28.5 points with the total at 52.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Bowling Green Needs More From Its Running Game

Bowling Green came up short in its opener against Tarleton State, falling 20-13 despite controlling possession for nearly 35 minutes. The Falcons generated 366 total yards and 21 first downs but struggled to establish the run, finishing with only 104 rushing yards. Tarleton State produced 464 yards against the Bowling Green defense, including 258 on the ground.

Jay Kastantin was a bright spot in his Bowling Green debut, completing 24 of 30 passes for 262 yards. Jeremiah Scoby caught 10 passes for 102 yards, while Austyn Dendy rushed for 60 yards and scored the Falcons’ only touchdown. Bowling Green moved inside the Tarleton State 10-yard line late in the fourth quarter but failed to convert on fourth down.

The Falcons now face a substantial increase in competition. Nebraska rushed for 248 yards in its opener, making Bowling Green’s problems stopping Tarleton State’s ground game particularly concerning. The Falcons will need another efficient performance from Kastantin while finding considerably more balance offensively to keep Nebraska’s offense off the field.

Nebraska Explodes After Halftime

Nebraska’s 49-21 victory over Ohio was more competitive than the final score suggests early, with the Cornhuskers holding only a 14-13 halftime advantage. Nebraska took complete control after the break, however, scoring 35 second-half points and finishing with 523 total yards.

Anthony Colandrea completed 18 of 32 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns without an interception while also rushing for a touchdown. Jamal Rule rushed for 122 yards and two touchdowns and caught a 24-yard touchdown pass. Mekhi Nelson also provided explosive plays, including a 29-yard touchdown run and a 51-yard touchdown reception.

Nebraska’s rushing attack finished with 248 yards on 42 carries, and the Cornhuskers converted nine of 15 third downs while going a perfect 4-for-4 in the red zone. After some early defensive problems, Nebraska settled down and allowed Ohio only 130 yards over the remainder of the game following the Bobcats’ first three possessions. That second-half performance is particularly encouraging entering a matchup where Nebraska owns a significant talent and depth advantage.

Bowling Green vs Nebraska Picks and Prediction

Pick: Nebraska -28.5

Nebraska -28.5 is my preferred side. Bowling Green allowed Tarleton State to rush for 258 yards, and that’s a major concern against a Nebraska offense that just produced 248 rushing yards and several explosive second-half plays against Ohio. Kastantin gives Bowling Green enough competence at quarterback to move the football occasionally, but the Falcons struggled to finish drives even against FCS competition. Nebraska’s ability to wear down Ohio was obvious in the second half, and the same physical advantage should be even greater here. Take Nebraska -28.5.

Pick: Over 52.5

The Over 52.5 is my preferred total. Nebraska scored 49 points while producing 523 yards in its opener, and Bowling Green just surrendered 464 yards to Tarleton State. The Cornhuskers have a realistic path toward the low-to-mid 40s by themselves, particularly if their rushing attack consistently creates explosive plays. Bowling Green doesn’t need a huge offensive performance to push this across the number. Something around 45-13 or 42-14 gets the job done. Take Over 52.5.

Final Picks: Nebraska -28.5 and Over 52.5