Bowling Green vs. UMass, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Bowling Green (3-8, 1-6 MAC) travels to Amherst, Massachusetts (0-11, 0-7 MAC) on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU in the finale for both teams. The Falcons lost their last outing 19-16 to Akron, while the Minutemen were routed 42-14 by Ohio. Bowling Green comes in with a significantly better defensive team, while UMass has really struggled on both sides of the ball. Check out our top NCAAF predictions on Stat Salt, including this Bowling Green Falcons at Massachusetts Minutemen.
Bowling Green Falcons Look To Snap Losing Streak
Bowling Green is averaging 297.6 yards per game, with 153.4 through the air and 144.3 on the ground. Quarterback Drew Pyne has thrown for 882 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions on 62.3 percent passing, though he is questionable with an ankle issue. The Falcons turned to Hunter Najm against Akron, and he finished with 138 yards on 9-of-26 passing, one touchdown, and two interceptions. That performance displayed the importance of the running game, and Austyn Dendy remains the key player with 378 yards and three touchdowns on 86 carries. He carried 27 times for 110 yards last week.
Tight end Jyrin Johnson leads the Falcons through the air with 446 yards and two touchdowns on 35 catches. He was the most productive option against Akron, finishing with 63 yards on three catches. Bowling Green averages 18.3 points per game and often relies on the ground attack to control pace, especially when injuries create problems at quarterback.
The Falcons have been far more reliable on defense, allowing 348.1 yards per game, including 199.7 passing and 148.4 rushing. Their scoring defense is conceding 25.2 points per game - one of the better marks in the MAC. Myles Bradley's five sacks lead the pass rush and help the Falcons hold opponents to just 33.6 percent on third down, ranking 24th in the nation. The team carries a +1 turnover margin, providing a steady advantage against opponents with turnover problems. Red zone defense has struggled, but overall yardage numbers give Bowling Green a clear defensive advantage in this matchup.
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Key Injury Report for Bowling Green:
The injury list is a bit long. B. Rice, A. Harris, C. Marshall, B. May, D. Pyne, and K. Washington are all questionable, while linebacker D. Pringle is out with a knee injury.
Massachusetts Minutemen Still Searching For First Win
UMass comes in averaging 243.5 yards per contest, with 159.8 via the air and 83.6 on the ground. Quarterback AJ Hairston has paced the offense with 957 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions on 49.5 percent passing. Last week, Grant Jordan saw most of the action and ended with 56 yards, one TD pass, and one pick on 10-of-21 passing. Numbers have been inconsistent through 11 games, which has been an issue for the offense all season. It's been a disastrous season for a program that is looking for it's first FBS win since 2023.
On the ground, Brandon Hood leads with 359 yards and two touchdowns on 93 carries. He had 39 yards on 10 attempts against Ohio. The passing game is highly dependent on Jacquon Gibson, who leads the team in receiving with 478 yards on 53 receptions. In the loss, he had 21 yards on five catches. Scoring has been a difficult task all season, as the Minutemen average just 10.8 points per game.
The UMass defense allows 436.4 yards per game, giving up 220.2 through the air and 216.2 on the ground. The Minutemen allow an average of 38.0 points per game, one of the worst in the country. The team holds a -6 turnover margin and has not generated consistent stops up front outside of Marques White, who leads with five sacks. Tyler Martin leads the team with 94 tackles, but the defense routinely gives up long drives and struggles in the red zone. UMass holds the ball for just 26:53 per game, leaving the defense on the field for extended periods.
Key Injury Report for UMass:
Players listed as questionable include D. Snyder, K. Massey, L. Painton, R. Barnes, B. Roy Jr., T. Magee, and R. Adkins. Those listed as out include M. Glynn II and Z. Franks, along with J. Nobles.
Bowling Green Falcons at UMass Minutemen Pick
Spread Pick for Bowling Green at UMass
- Bowling Green - (4 Units)
Bowling Green has the stronger defense. They have a more dependable rushing game, and they have the better third-down conversion rate. UMass allows 436.4 yards and 38.0 points per game, while the Minutemen offense averages only 10.8 points. The run game of Bowling Green should find steady success against a defense allowing 216.2 rushing yards. Bowling Green protects the football better, holds an advantage in time of possession, and gets more pressure up front. With major injuries across the board for UMass and a lack of consistency on both sides for the Minutemen, Bowling Green will win and cover this final game of the season for both teams.
Over/Under Pick for Bowling Green vs. UMass
- Under (4 Units)
Neither offense has shown an ability to score consistently. Bowling Green averages 18.3 points per game, with UMass coming in at 10.8. Both teams rely very heavily on the ground game, and neither of the passing attacks will add much to the offenses. Bowling Green's defense should be able to dictate tempo in this matchup, and UMass converting only 29.4 percent on third down limits their drives. Given the Minutemen's long injury list and inability to sustain offense, this matchup will result in a low-scoring outcome.
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