Bowling Green vs Western Michigan Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026
Two MAC teams coming off close losses meet Saturday at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo. Bowling Green lost 31-24 at Buffalo last weekend, while Western Michigan fell 45-38 at Toledo. The Falcons are 2-6 overall and ninth in the MAC with a 2-2 conference record. Western Michigan is third at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in conference games. Kickoff is at 12:00 pm ET on CBS Sports Network. The Broncos are 14-point favorites, and the total is 43.5. Find your next winner with our free NCAAF picks.
Bowling Green Has Been Losing Close Games
A point separated Bowling Green and Ball State on October 17. Unfortunately for the Falcons, they were on the wrong end of a 32-31 overtime result. The following Saturday brought another disappointment, this time at Buffalo, where Bowling Green lost by seven. It's a frustrating stretch for a team that had won its previous two games. The Falcons beat Miami (Ohio) 24-20 and handled Sacramento State 38-10 before the losses started again. They've scored at least 24 points in four straight games, but that hasn't been enough to improve their record.
Jay Kastantin has completed 67% of his passes for 1,418 yards, throwing 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Winn Sharp leads the receivers with 305 yards, while Austyn Dendy has rushed for 371 yards. Bowling Green hasn't gained much ground overall, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. The defense has been more productive at getting to quarterbacks, with Myles Bradley recording eight sacks. Dorian Pringle has made 74 tackles, the most on the team. Those two will have plenty of work against Western Michigan's rushing attack.
Injuries: Isaiah Dawson and A. Clay are out. Trey Johnson and Tristin Blackmon are questionable.
Western Michigan Hopes to Get Back to Winning
The trip to Toledo didn't go as Western Michigan had planned. The Broncos put 38 points on the board, which normally gives a team a good chance to win. Toledo scored 45, however, and Western Michigan's three-game winning streak was over. The defense had been much better during that run, holding Buffalo to 17 points, Kent State to seven and Central Michigan to 14. Saturday's return to Kalamazoo gives the Broncos another home game after spending two consecutive weeks on the road.
Jalen Buckley has provided plenty of offense for Western Michigan. He has 634 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, with a season average of 5.3 yards per attempt. Quarterback Broc Lowry can also run, adding 255 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Lowry has thrown 10 touchdown passes, with just three interceptions in eight games. Aveion Chenault has been his top target, catching 28 passes for 431 yards. The Broncos have several ways to move the football, though their defense needs to look more like the unit that played against Kent State than the one Toledo faced.
Injuries: No injuries listed.
Key To The Game
Bowling Green needs to make Western Michigan throw the ball. The Falcons have been giving up ground in the standings, but their pass rush has produced 19 sacks, including eight from Bradley. If Buckley gets going early, Western Michigan can keep its offense on schedule without asking Lowry to take many chances. Bowling Green's own rushing numbers aren't encouraging, either. At 3.2 yards per carry, the Falcons have had trouble getting much done without Kastantin making plays through the air.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan Game Pick
- Western Michigan Broncos -14
Fourteen points is a sizeable spread considering Bowling Green's last two losses were decided by one and seven points. Still, the Falcons haven't shown they can run consistently, which is a problem against a Western Michigan team that can control possession with Buckley. Toledo scored 45 against the Broncos last week, but Bowling Green doesn't have the same rushing production. Western Michigan has already beaten Kent State by 31 and Boise State aside, has won its other three MAC games. I expect the Broncos to establish their ground game and win by more than two touchdowns.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan Over/Under Pick
- Over 43.5
The total looks fairly low for two teams that just played games with 55 and 83 combined points. Bowling Green's last four games have each produced at least 44 points, and Kastantin has thrown enough to keep the Falcons involved offensively. Western Michigan scored 38 at Toledo, with Buckley and Lowry giving the Broncos options on the ground. The concern is whether Bowling Green can score enough against a defense that was strong before last week. Still, Western Michigan can do much of the work itself, and the over 43.5 is my pick.