Buffalo Bulls vs Central Michigan Chippewas Prediction and Picks - November 12, 2025
Wednesday evening MAC-tion, and we have a Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction locked and loaded for you. Buffalo enters this contest at 5-4 on the year, and they are off a 28-3 road win over Bowling Green. The Chippewas are off a 24-21 road loss to Western Michigan, which dropped them to 5-4 on the year. These teams met back in 2023, and Buffalo won that game at home by a score of 37-17. Which team will reach bowl eligibility this week? Read on to see our Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction.
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Bulls Ground The Falcons On The Road
Buffalo enters this matchup with confidence after dismantling Bowling Green 28-3, improving to 5–4 overall and 4–1 in MAC play. Quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson didn’t light up the stat sheet, but he managed the game well, throwing for 136 yards and a touchdown. Al-Jay Henderson was the real spark, rushing for 119 yards and a score, while Nik McMillan added 105 receiving yards. The Bulls didn’t need flash—they just executed, and their defense did the rest. That win kept them in the thick of the MAC title race, and with Miami (OH) looming next week, this one’s a must-win.
Buffalo’s defense has been the backbone of their season, ranking 25th nationally in scoring defense at just 19.6 points per game. They’re also top-35 in total yards allowed and red zone efficiency, making life tough for opponents once they cross midfield. Offensively, they’ve been middle-of-the-pack, averaging 24.8 points and 358.8 yards per game, but their third-down conversion rate (just 34.9%) and red zone scoring (80%) have been issues. If Roberson can avoid turnovers and Henderson continues to churn out yards, Buffalo has the formula to grind out another win.
The Bulls are 1–1-1 as underdogs this season. Their defense gives them a chance in every game, and they’ll need that unit to step up again against a Central Michigan team that can control the clock. Buffalo’s average time of possession is just 28:23, compared to CMU’s 32:09, so flipping that script will be key. If they can force Joey Labas into third-and-long situations and capitalize on field position, Buffalo could walk out of Mount Pleasant with a crucial sixth win.
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Chippewas Fall Short Against Broncos
Central Michigan sits at 5–4 overall and 3–2 in MAC play after a narrow 24-21 loss to Western Michigan. Joey Labas was efficient, going 8-of-11 for 152 yards and a touchdown, and Langston Lewis broke loose for 111 yards and a score. The Chippewas had chances to win but couldn’t finish, and that loss stung with bowl eligibility still hanging in the balance. Angel Flores continues to be the workhorse, rushing for 519 yards and eight touchdowns, and his physical style will be key against Buffalo’s stout front.
The Chippewas lean heavily on their ground game, ranking 36th nationally with 185.3 rushing yards per game. Their passing attack is limited—just 153.6 yards per game, 126th in the FBS—but Labas has protected the ball well, throwing only two picks. Defensively, CMU allows 24 points per game and ranks 59th in total yards allowed. Their red zone defense is a strength, holding opponents to scores on just 78.1% of trips, and their +5 turnover margin ranks 23rd nationally. That ability to win the turnover battle could be the difference in a tight game.
Central Michigan has covered the spread in three straight and is 3–0 at home when favored. They’ve been solid in Mount Pleasant, and with bowl eligibility on the line, expect Jim McElwain’s squad to lean on Flores and the run game early. If they can dominate possession and keep Buffalo’s offense off the field, the Chippewas have a path to victory. But they’ll need to finish drives and avoid the kind of late-game lapses that cost them last week.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Pick
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Spread Pick
- Buffalo +2.5 (2 Units)
Buffalo +2.5 looks like a strong play given how well their defense has traveled and the way they’ve handled MAC opponents lately. The Bulls have won four of their last five conference games, and their 28-3 dismantling of Bowling Green showed just how dominant they can be when their front seven controls the line of scrimmage. Ta’Quan Roberson doesn’t need to be flashy—he just needs to avoid mistakes and let Al-Jay Henderson set the tone on the ground. With a defense allowing under 20 points per game and ranking top-35 nationally in red zone stops, Buffalo has the tools to keep this close deep into the fourth quarter.
Central Michigan has been solid at home, but they’re coming off a tough loss to Western Michigan and haven’t been consistent offensively. Joey Labas is efficient, but the Chippewas lean heavily on the run and could struggle if Buffalo’s front clogs the lanes early. The Bulls have a slight edge in turnover margin and time of possession, and their ability to win field position battles could tilt this one in their favor. In a game that feels like a grind-it-out MAC slugfest, taking the points with Buffalo gives you value on a team that’s been quietly surging.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Over/Under Pick
- Under 43.5 (3 Units)
The Under 43.5 feels like the right play in a matchup where both teams prefer a slower, grind-it-out style. Buffalo’s defense has been one of the MAC’s best, allowing under 20 points per game and consistently forcing opponents into long drives that chew clock. Central Michigan leans heavily on the run and ranks near the bottom nationally in passing yards, which limits explosive scoring chances. With both teams focused on ball control and field position, and neither offense built for quick strikes, this game sets up as a methodical, lower-scoring battle that favors the under.
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