Buffalo vs Penn State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 19 2026

The Buffalo Bulls travel to face the No. 16 Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET with coverage on BTN. Penn State enters after opening with a 45-0 victory over Marshall and following that with a 27-9 road victory at Temple. Buffalo opened its season with a narrow 21-17 victory over Albany before losing at FIU. Penn State opened as a massive 39.5-point favorite for its final nonconference game before beginning Big Ten play. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Buffalo Faces Its Toughest Test by Far

Buffalo's 21-17 opening victory over Albany was considerably closer than expected. The Bulls entered that matchup as an 18.5-point favorite but couldn't create separation against their FCS opponent.

Now the level of competition increases dramatically. Penn State has surrendered only nine points through its first two games and has already recorded one shutout. Buffalo must find a way to sustain drives against a defense that has been extremely difficult to score against.

The enormous spread gives Buffalo considerable room, but the Bulls need to prevent this from becoming a runaway early. If Penn State reaches the 30s before Buffalo establishes any offensive rhythm, covering nearly 40 points becomes realistic.

Penn State's Defense Has Dominated

Penn State opened the season by crushing Marshall 45-0 at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions followed that performance by traveling to Philadelphia and defeating Temple 27-9, improving to 2-0.

The most impressive part of the start has been the defense. Penn State has allowed only nine points through eight quarters. That gives the Nittany Lions a tremendous foundation against a Buffalo team that struggled to put away Albany.

Penn State also returns to Beaver Stadium for its final tune-up before Big Ten play. The question isn't whether the Nittany Lions should dominate; it's whether they'll maintain enough offensive aggression after building a large lead to cover one of the biggest spreads on the board.

Buffalo vs Penn State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Penn State -39.5

Take Penn State -39.5. It's an enormous number, but this is one matchup where I'm willing to consider laying it. Penn State has beaten Marshall 45-0 and Temple 27-9, allowing only nine points through two games. Buffalo, meanwhile, struggled to a four-point victory over Albany. Penn State has the defensive profile to hold Buffalo near single digits, meaning the Nittany Lions don't necessarily need an absurd offensive performance to cover. A score in the neighborhood of Penn State 49, Buffalo 7 gets the job done.

Pick: Under 55.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 55.5 or higher. This is essentially a bet on Penn State's defense. The Nittany Lions have surrendered nine total points through two games, and Buffalo's offensive ceiling becomes considerably lower against this level of opponent. The biggest danger is Penn State approaching the total by itself, but if the Nittany Lions reach the mid-to-upper 40s and Buffalo remains in single digits, the Under can still cash.

Final Picks: Penn State -39.5 and Under 55.5