California Golden Bears vs. San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20, 2025
Get ready for an exhilarating Week 4 clash as the California Golden Bears battle it out with the San Diego State Aztecs in our Golden Bears vs. Aztecs prediction. Set to unfold at Snapdragon Stadium on September 20th at 10:30 PM ET, this game, airing on CBSSN, promises an exciting matchup with two teams starting the season in different directions. With these teams looking to step up in this matchup, let's dive into the stats, injuries, and key insights to preview what's in store. College gridiron clarity — NCAAF picks for California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs with key matchups.
Golden Bears Looking Sharp
The California Golden Bears are getting ready to continue dominating on the offensive side of the ball as they are coming off a 27-14 home win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. California’s offense is led by quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has been able to complete 71-of-106 passes for 780 yards with six passing touchdowns and one interception to begin the season. He threw for 279 yards with three touchdowns against the Golden Gophers last week.
Their total offense stands at 387.7 yards per game (71st in NCAA), with rushing accounting for 121.3 yards (108th). The passing game has been carrying things as they are averaging 266.3 yards per game (37th).
Defensively, Cal has excelled as they are allowing 280.0 total yards per game (38th), with their rush defense standing out as they are allowing just 82.3 yards on the ground (16th). If they can continue to dominate on defense, they will be difficult to take down.
Injury Report for California
No injuries to report
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Aztecs Looking to Step Up and Surprise People
The San Diego State Aztecs are looking to get off to a good start this season, but they are coming off a 36-13 road loss against the Washington State Cougars. Quarterback Jayden Denegal has held his own this year as he completed 28-of-55 passes for 340 yards with two touchdown passes. As a team, they are ranked 104th nationally in passing yards, averaging 339.5 per game. San Diego’s total offense, which averages 339.5 yards per game (101st), will need to find new ways to maintain its efficiency as they are not doing much for big yardage. The rushing game, contributing 155.0 yards per game (80th nationally), might see an increased emphasis to hand the ball off as it seemingly is the better aspect for the team moving the ball.
The Aztecs’ defense, allowing an average of 245.5 total yards per game (22nd), has been their strength this season. Their rush defense, in particular, has been their best aspect, conceding only 94.0 yards per game (31st). Their pass defense, allowing 151.5 yards per game (25th), remains a strong point and San Diego State needs the offense to wake up to do better.
Injury Report for San Diego State
- Wide receiver Ben Scolari: Knee (OUT)
California at San Diego State Pick
Spread Pick for Cal at San Diego State
- California Golden Bears -12.5 (5 units)
California is 3-0 for a reason and we are getting some of the line advantage as it opened as a 13.5-point spread. San Diego’s offense is on a completely different level, so there is a lot of differences between what we should expect. If Jayden Denegal is throwing to any other receiver than Jacob Bostick, he is not finding the end zone. Even with the Aztecs having last week off to gameplan for this matchup, California should dominate as they have not allowed more than 15 points in a game. All in all, go with the California Golden Bears to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for California vs. San Diego State
- Under 47.5 (4 units)
This isn’t rocket science, it’s just football. Two subpar offenses going up against impressive defenses means the points are going to be coming at a premium. Sagapolutele is going to struggle a bit as San Diego State is 23rd in college football with a 55.2 opposing completion percentage and 10th in yards per attempt (4.5). With the Aztecs getting an additional week off to rest and get some more tape on the opposing quarterback, this puts the defense in a good position to step up. Take under 47.5 points as the better bet to make for this game.
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