California vs SMU Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 24, 2026
The California Golden Bears will travel to Dallas, Texas, Saturday afternoon for an ACC matchup against the No. 23 SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The game is scheduled to begin at 12:00 PM ET, with coverage available on The CW Network. California enters the matchup with a 3-4 record and will look to get back on track after a difficult stretch of the season. SMU comes into Saturday's contest ranked among the nation's top 25 teams with a 5-1 record, having won four of its last five games, including three straight following a 10-point home victory against Virginia last week. SMU enters the matchup as a 19.5-point favorite at -1100 on the moneyline. California is a +700 underdog, and the total is set at 55.5. Keep up with our College Football Picks.
California Tries to Get Back to .500
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is leading the California offense this season with 1,290 passing yards and nine touchdowns on 122 completions. Jackson Brousseau has added 701 yards and three touchdowns on 75 completions this year. Adam Mohammed leads the rushing attack with 336 yards and three touchdowns on 73 carries. Ashten Emory is second on the team with 205 yards and four touchdowns on 59 carries. Chase Hendricks leads the receiving corps with 415 yards and two touchdowns on 47 catches. Ian Strong has added 396 yards and one touchdown on 28 receptions, while Mason Mini has chipped in 220 yards and two touchdowns on 20 catches.
California struggled offensively last week, scoring just seven points on 266 total yards. Defensively, the Golden Bears had an equally difficult outing, allowing 41 points, including 34 in the first half, as Wake Forest compiled 509 total yards. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele led the California offense, completing 15 passes for 110 yards and one touchdown. Jackson Brousseau completed 17 passes for 81 yards and added 14 rushing yards on five carries. Ashten Emory led California's rushing attack with 56 yards on 12 carries. Chase Hendricks was the top target in the passing game with eight receptions for 54 yards.
SMU Looks to Defend Its Ranking
Kevin Jennings is leading the SMU offense this season with 1,839 passing yards and 16 touchdowns on 140 completions, along with 95 rushing yards and two scores on 36 carries. Kendrick Raphael leads the ground attack with 537 yards and six touchdowns on 99 carries. Yamir Knight leads the receiving corps with 418 yards and two touchdowns on 35 receptions. Yannik Smith has added 318 yards and two touchdowns on 19 catches.
The SMU offense got the job done last week, scoring 23 points on 404 total yards. Defensively, the Mustangs were effective, allowing just 13 points on 258 total yards while forcing one turnover. Kevin Jennings led the SMU offense, completing 23 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns while adding 26 rushing yards on four carries. Kendrick Raphael led the ground attack with 119 yards on 22 carries. Yannik Smith led the receiving corps with 87 yards on five catches, while Jalen Hale added 60 yards and one touchdown on four receptions.
California vs SMU Picks and Prediction
Pick: SMU Mustangs -19.5
SMU should have an advantage offensively against a California team that has had difficulty putting together consistent performances this season. The Mustangs will look to establish their passing attack early and force the Golden Bears to defend the entire field. California will need to generate pressure on the quarterback without leaving its secondary vulnerable to explosive plays, which could become difficult if SMU establishes its running game. The Golden Bears have enough offensive talent to challenge the Mustangs, but sustaining drives and finishing possessions with touchdowns rather than field goals will be important. SMU should also benefit from playing at home, particularly if the Mustangs can build an early lead and force California into a pass-heavy approach. Expect SMU to create enough scoring opportunities and take advantage of California's defensive weaknesses to secure the victory.
Pick: Over 55.5
Saturday's matchup has the potential to feature plenty of offensive production, especially if California is forced to become aggressive after falling behind. SMU should be able to generate scoring opportunities through its passing attack and could find success against the Golden Bears if California struggles to create pressure in the backfield. The Mustangs will also look to establish their running game, which could create additional openings downfield as the defense begins to focus on stopping the run. California will need to respond offensively to remain competitive, and the Golden Bears should have opportunities to move the football if they can protect their quarterback. Both teams could benefit from a faster pace if the game becomes competitive in the second half. Look for SMU to lead the scoring while California contributes enough to push the matchup over the total.