Central Arkansas vs Florida State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Central Arkansas Bears visit the Florida State Seminoles at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET with coverage on ACC Network. Central Arkansas enters at 2-2 after a 27-9 loss at Southeast Missouri State, while Florida State is 1-1 following a 50-36 road loss to Alabama. This will be the first meeting between the programs. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Central Arkansas Has Been Difficult to Read

Central Arkansas has alternated wins and losses through four games. The Bears opened by beating UT Martin 36-24, lost 42-14 to West Florida, responded with a 59-20 victory over Central Oklahoma and then fell 27-9 at Southeast Missouri State. That’s an enormous range of performances.

The offense has demonstrated considerable upside against the right opponent. Central Arkansas has already scored 36 and 59 points in victories. The problem is that the Bears have also been held to 14 and nine in their defeats, suggesting their offensive production drops sharply when the opposition controls the line of scrimmage.

That becomes the central concern in Tallahassee. Central Arkansas is stepping into an ACC environment against a Florida State team coming off a loss and unlikely to overlook the opportunity to correct its mistakes. The Bears need to avoid falling behind early because Florida State’s depth advantage becomes more significant as the game progresses.

Florida State Looks to Respond at Home

Florida State returns home after losing 50-36 at Alabama. The Seminoles scored enough points to demonstrate offensive capability, but surrendering 50 exposes the defensive issues that must be corrected before conference play becomes the primary focus.

The schedule provides Florida State with an excellent opportunity to reset. Central Arkansas has allowed 42 points to West Florida and 27 to Southeast Missouri State, so the Seminoles should have opportunities to generate explosive plays. Florida State’s objective should be establishing control early rather than allowing the underdog to hang around into the second half.

The biggest handicapping issue isn’t whether Florida State should win. It is determining how much the Seminoles can reasonably be asked to cover. Central Arkansas has already shown enough offensive explosiveness that laying an extreme number would introduce unnecessary risk.

Cent. Ark. vs Florida State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Florida State -27.5 or Better

Florida State is coming off a loss and should have plenty of motivation to deliver a cleaner performance at home. Central Arkansas has already lost by 28 to West Florida and 18 to Southeast Missouri State. The athletic jump to Florida State is significant. If the number remains below four touchdowns, the Seminoles are the preferred side.

Pick: Over 52.5 or Lower

Central Arkansas doesn’t necessarily need to contribute much for this total to get there. Florida State scored 36 against Alabama, while the Bears have surrendered 42 and 27 in their two losses. Something around 42-14 would be sufficient, and Central Arkansas has demonstrated enough offensive ability to contribute a couple of scores if Florida State begins rotating personnel late.

Final Picks: Florida State -27.5 or Better and Over 52.5 or Lower