Central Michigan vs New Mexico Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026
Central Michigan travels to Albuquerque to open its 2026 season against New Mexico on Saturday, September 5. The Lobos are currently favored by 10.5 points, with the total set at a relatively low 46.5. New Mexico is also around -410 on the moneyline compared with +320 for Central Michigan. Oddsmakers clearly favor the Lobos at home, but getting double digits in a game with a total below 50 makes Central Michigan interesting against the spread. Get into the action with our free college football picks.
Central Michigan Gets Double Digits
Central Michigan enters its first season in the rebuilt Mountain West after finishing 2025 with a solid record against the spread. The Chippewas covered eight of their 13 games last season. That doesn't automatically make them the correct side here, but +10.5 provides a substantial cushion in what the market expects to be a relatively low-scoring game.
The 46.5 total is particularly important. When the expected scoring is this limited, getting more than a touchdown plus a field goal becomes valuable. Central Michigan doesn't necessarily need to seriously threaten an upset. Keeping New Mexico below 30 points could put the Chippewas in an excellent position to cover.
New Mexico Deserves to Be Favored
New Mexico gets the game at home and is understandably the favorite. The Lobos are laying more than a touchdown and are better than a 4-to-1 favorite on the moneyline, so the market is making a clear statement about the expected straight-up winner.
However, winning and covering -10.5 are different propositions. A 27-20 or 24-17 New Mexico victory would be enough to reward Lobos moneyline bettors while still comfortably cashing Central Michigan.
Central Michigan vs New Mexico Picks and Prediction
Pick: Central Michigan +10.5
I'm taking Central Michigan +10.5. New Mexico deserves to be favored at home, but getting double digits in a game carrying a 46.5 total is attractive. Central Michigan went 8-5 ATS last season and doesn't need much offensively to remain inside this number. Something around New Mexico 27, Central Michigan 20 gives the Lobos the expected victory while comfortably cashing the Chippewas. Take Central Michigan +10.5.
Pick: Under 46.5
I'll also take Under 46.5. The spread and total suggest New Mexico is expected to control the matchup without the game turning into a shootout. Central Michigan's best route to covering also involves limiting possessions and keeping the Lobos from generating explosive scoring stretches. Something around 24-17 or 27-17 gets us there. Take Under 46.5.
Final Picks: Central Michigan +10.5 and Under 46.5