Cincinnati vs. TCU, Picks, Preview, and Prediction, Saturday, Nov. 30, 2025
Big 12 action on Saturday in this Cincinnati vs. TCU prediction on a warm Saturday afternoon from Fort Worth. Cincinnati (7-4, 5-3 Big12) has lost three straight to fall out of the Big 12 races. TCU (7-4, 4-4 B12) edged Houston 17-14 in their last game to snap a two-game losing streak. These teams met last season with TCU winning 20-13 as a 2.5-point favorite at home. The Horned Frogs are a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 57.5. Try our free college football selections at Stat Salt if you want to win this holiday season.
Cincy's offense struggles against BYU
The Bearcats lost their third straight game on Saturday, 26-14, as a 2.5-point underdog. QB Brendan Sorsby threw for 300 yards and two TDs (25 of 38), but also had a pick for the Bearcats. He also had 38 yards rushing, but the Bearcats were -2 in the turnover category and had the ball for just 21:35.
Sorsby is completing 60.7% of his passes for 2,518 yards with 24 TDs and five INTs. He also has 521 yards rushing and nine TDs. His top target is Cyrus Allen, who has 46 catches for 623 yards with 11 TDs. The offense is usually the strength of the team that averages 465.9 yards per game (27th). On defense, they're allowing 245.2 yards per game in the air and 184.5 rushing yards (100th). The Bearcats are tied for 94th in turnover margin at -0.3.
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TCU forces turnovers
TCU comes into this game with a defense that has recorded 21 sacks and 60 tackles for loss. That type of aggressive play leads to turnovers as the Horned Frogs have 12 interceptions with six fumble recoveries. However, in their win over Houston last week, QB Josh Hoover threw for 293 yards with three interceptions and two TDs. TCU also had a fumble to go -2 in the turnover margin because Houston had an interception.
Hoover is averaging 288 yards per game and has 25 touchdowns (64.7%). His top targets are Eric McAlister (1,020 yds, nine TDs) and Jordan Dwyer (51 rec for 641 yds). The leading rusher is Kevorian Barnes, who has 443 yards, but will be out this Saturday due to an undisclosed injury.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs need to force turnovers because they have struggled against the pass (263.1ypg). Offensively, they rank 11th in the nation in passing yards per game (320.7), but they are pedestrian as a rushing team (135.3ypg).
Key Injuries for TCU:
- RB K. Barnes (undisclosed) is out.
- S. K. Jackson (undisclosed) is out. Has 2.5 sacks.
Spread Pick for Cincinnati vs. TCU
Cincinnati vs. TCU Pick and Prediction
- Cincinnati +3.5 (4 units)
The Bearcats are going bowling, but they don't want to be on a four-game losing streak heading into the bowl season. Neither team is playing that well, but TCU has averaged just 15.5 points per game in their last three. Sorsby will have a big game against a shaky pass defense. TCU is 1-3 ATS their last four as a favorite.
- Under 57.5 (5 units)
As leaky as TCU's defense can be, they also force a ton of turnovers, so they can be band-and-not-break. They've gone under in six of their last nine games. Both teams are averaging under 20 points per game in their last three. Last season, TCU won the game 20-13, which was well under the total of 58. We'll see something similar in this game.
