Colorado Buffaloes vs. TCU Horned Frogs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code SSWC If you’re looking at the action in Fort Worth on Saturday night, then it’s in your best interest to put your eyes on our Colorado vs. TCU predictions before things get rolling. The Buffaloes (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) were 24-21 losers against No. 25 BYU at home last weekend as +6.5 underdogs. The Horned Frogs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) fell against Arizona State, 24-21, as +2/5 road dogs last weekend. Kickoff from Amon G. Carter Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 EST and if you are struggling to pick winners, we have the strongest NCAAF Predictions.Â
Colorado on choppy waters
The Buffaloes have alternated a loss with a win since their season opener. They put forth a valiant effort in their Big 12 opener last weekend, but the offense fell flat, scoring just seven points over the last three quarters. They produced only 299 yards and 17 first downs while the defense allowed 387 yards and 27 first downs.
Colorado, through five games, is averaging 25.8 points of offense per game, the third-lowest mark among Big 12 teams. They average 358.2 total yards with an emphasis on their passing game, which averages 210.8 yards per game. Kaidon Salter went 11-16 for 119 yards, a TD and an INT last weekend. He has completed 67% of his passes this season for 684 yards and 5 TDs and he’s rushed for 202 yards, with one rushing touchdown in each of the four games he’s played in. Three players have at least 200 receiving yards and Joseph Williams leads the squad with 14 catches for 220 yards. The rushing attack averages 147.5 yards per game, led by Micah Welch’s 210 yards on 40 carries. The offensive line has given up 12 sacks.
On defense, the Buffaloes are giving up 22.8 points and 404.8 total yards per game. They have the second-worst rushing defense in the Big 12, allowing 197.2 yards per game as opponents average 4.8 yards per game. Versus the pass, Colorado has allowed 207.6 yards per game. Their six sacks are the second fewest in the conference and their two interceptions are, third fewest. Tawfiq Byard leads the team and is tied for seventh in the Big 12 with 35 tackles. DJ McKinney has 15 tackles, an interception and leads the team with four pass deflections.
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Team notes
- Sincere Brown averages 26.4 yards per catch, second best in the Big 12.
- Alejandro Mata is 16-16 on PATs and 3-4 on field goals attempts, with a long of 42 yards.
- Quinton Gibson is fifth in the Big 12 with a kickoff return average of 25.6 yards.
- The Buffs are eighth in the conference with 95 first downs.
Time in rankings short lived for TCU
The Horned Frogs were able to climb to No. 24 in the country after a 3-0 SU start but were immediately dumped from the polls following their Big 12 opener against Arizona State last weekend. They were up, 17-14, at halftime but were outscored, 13-7, in the second half. TCU’s offense tallied only 269 yards and 15 first downs while their defense allowed 498 yards and 25 first downs.
The TCU offense ranks fifth among Big 12 teams with an average of 37.3 points and 454.3 total yards per game. They have the third-best passing game in the conference, averaging 320.8 yards per game. Josh Hoover is third in the Big 12 with 1,242 passing yards. At Arizona State, the junior quarterback threw for 242 yards and two interceptions. Hoover has completed 66.7% of his passes and is tied for third in the conference with 11 touchdown passes. Five different players have caught at least 11 passes, and Jordan Dwyer has a team-high 20 catches for 299 yards and 2 TDs. The Frogs’ rushing game averages 133.5 yards per game, the lowest mark in the conference. Trent Battle has scored three of the team’s seven rushing TDs. The line has surrendered eight sacks.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs are giving up 389.3 yards, 14th in the Big 12, and 21.5 points per game. They are eighth in the conference against the rush, allowing 132 yards per game. Against the pass, they are giving up 257.3 yards per game, the second-worst mark among Big 12 defenses. Their 12 sacks are tied for the third most in the conference, and they’ve added three interceptions, two from Jamel Johnson, who is second on the team with 28 tackles. Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the team with 31 tackles and three sacks. On the injury front, top WR Eric McAlister (hamstring) is questionable. RB Kevorian Barnes (undisclosed) is questionable.
Team notes
- The Horned Frogs are fourth in the Big 12 with 56 passing first downs.
- They are second in the conference on third downs with a 57.7% success rate.
- Eric McAlister is third in the conference, averaging 24.6 yards per reception.
- Kyle Lemmermann and Nate McCashland are a combined 20-20 on PATS and 3-4 on field goals attempts.
Colorado vs. TCU Picks
Spread Pick for Colorado vs. TCU
- Colorado +13.5 (5 units)
These two last met in 2023, a shootout that Colorado won by three points as +21 underdogs on the road. We have a similar setup in the rematch as host TCU is again heavily favored. The Buffaloes have faced a tough schedule to open the season, and some of that seems to be wearing off on them, in a good way. Last week, that wasn’t particularly the case, but they were in position to pick off a win over a ranked opponent. It’s just a matter of them putting forth a full-game effort. They should want to do so following last week’s loss. Colorado’s defense is going to need to put more pressure in the backfield than it normally does in an effort to slow Hoover. On the flip side, the Buffs' passing game should be able to find a nice rhythm against one of the worst pass defenses around. I won’t go so far as to predict a Colorado victory, but I think they stay close enough here.
Take the Buffaloes getting the points.
Over/Under Pick for Colorado vs. TCU
- Over 58 (5 units)
This matchup features a pair of offenses on the opposite sides of the Big 12 scoring coin. The Buffaloes have struggled to put up big offensive numbers thus far, scoring over 21 points in just two of their five games. However, coming to TCU, they could be in a position to make it a third such effort as the Horned Frogs are always willing to turn things into a shootout. TCU has been airing things out this season, which has allowed them to score 35 points or more in three games. They are going to want to come out swinging after their loss to Arizona State and Colorado’s defense should give them the chance. The Buffaloes also get the benefit of facing one of the Big 12’s worst passing defenses, so I like them to score big as well. When these two met just two years ago they combined for 87 points.
Take the over.
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