Colorado State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Picks for Friday, October 3rd, 2025
Use Code SSWC Week six of the college football season is upon us, and we have an exciting Mountain West clash between the Colorado State Rams (1-3, 0-0 MW) and the San Diego State Aztecs (3-1, 0-0 MW) getting us started on Friday. We’ve got you covered with our Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 ET from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, CA. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Rams Drop to 1-3
They’re in the fourth year of the Jay Norvell era in Fort Collins, and so far the Colorado State Rams are just 17-24 (12-12 MW) during his tenure. That includes this year’s underwhelming 1-3 start. Colorado State notched a win over FCS Northern Colorado (21-17) in week two, but it’s surrounded by FBS defeats at the hands of Washington (38-21), UTSA (17-16), and Washington State (20-3). The Rams have yet to play a Mountain West game in 2025, so they’ll close the year with eight conference opponents.
There’s a shakeup with the Rams this weekend, as they’ll turn to redshirt sophomore Jackson Brousseau to handle the quarterbacking responsibilities. This will be his first start, but Brousseau has thrown for 266 yards on a 72.5% completion rate, while adding a touchdown this year. His top targets out wide will be WRs Armani Winfield (156 yards) and Tommy Maher (131 yards). RB Jalen Dupree has spearheaded the rushing attack in 2025, gaining 267 yards and one touchdown on 53 carries (5.0 YPC).
- Heading into week six, Colorado State is priced at +3000 to win the Mountain West.
- Offensively, the Rams are scoring 13.3 points per game (126th), while averaging 335.3 yards per week (97th).
- Defensively, they are 64th in the country this year, conceding 25.0 points per game. They’re allowing 402.0 yards per contest, which is 83rd.
- TE Jaxxon Warren has missed the last two games after catching seven passes in his first two games. He's questionable with a foot injury.
Aztecs Handle Huskies in 6-3 Contest
As for the San Diego State Aztecs, they’re looking to build on an ugly 3-9 (2-5 MW) season under now-second-year coach Sean Lewis. The Aztecs have already met their win total from 2024, as they sit at 3-1 (0-0 MW) entering week six. So far, they’ve taken down FCS Stony Brook (42-0), California (34-0), and Northern Illinois (6-3). San Diego State suffered a loss against Washington State (38-13) back in week 2. Like Colorado State, this is the conference opener for San Diego State, so it’s Mountain West opponents from here on out.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
This season, it’s redshirt junior transfer Jayden Denegal (formerly Michigan) taking the reins of the offense. He hasn’t been dominant in 2025, logging 636 yards on a 60.2% completion rate, adding three touchdowns and two interceptions. WR Jordan Napier has emerged as his favorite weapon out wide. The redshirt sophomore has 290 yards and a touchdown on 25 receptions. RB Lucky Sutton has handled a bulk of the rushing workload, registering 337 yards and three touchdowns on 67 carries (5.0 YPC).
- Out of 12 teams in the Mountain West, the Aztecs possess the sixth-shortest price (+2200) to win the conference title.
- San Diego State’s offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 115th in scoring (17.7 PPG), while putting up 267.7 yards per game (127th).
- On the defensive side, the Aztecs are 10th this season, allowing 13.0 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 15th, conceding 285.0 yards per contest.
- Linebacker Tano Letuli (undisclosed) is questionable for this game. He's second on the team in tackles with 24, but missed their last game.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State Pick
Spread Pick for Colorado State vs. San Diego State
- San Diego State Aztecs -6.0 (-110) (5 units)
I was considering making a play on Colorado State plus the points in this one, but I don’t think I can get there on pulling the trigger. The Rams will make a quarterback change, but I’m still not convinced that they’ll magically turn things around with a new signal caller. QB Jackson Brousseau will now have to try and navigate a top-20 defense in a conference road environment.
San Diego State's offense isn’t overpowering, but this is actually a decent matchup for them – so I am comfortable laying the points while the spread is inside of a touchdown. They’re a run-heavy program, and they’ll take on a Colorado State squad that’s 118th in rushing yards allowed per game (206.0). The Aztecs also boast a +0.7 turnover margin per game rate (36th), so as long as they protect the ball and stick to the fundamentals, they should take care of business in this one.
Over/Under Pick for Colorado State vs. San Diego State
- Under 40.5 (-108) (5 units)
This is a relatively low total, but I’m actually surprised it’s not a couple of points lower. These are two of the worst offenses in the nation going toe-to-toe on Friday night. For Colorado State, they’re putting up only 13.3 points per game against FBS-level competition, while San Diego State is averaging 17.7 points per game.
Furthermore, the Aztecs prefer to play a hard-nosed, run-heavy brand of football. They’re 24th in the nation in run play percentage (58.6%), which in turn means the clock will be churning in this conference showdown. On the defensive side, San Diego State has held their opponents to three or fewer points in three of its four games this year. This isn’t an ideal matchup for the revamped Colorado State offense to try and figure things out against. I’m taking the under. The under is 4-1 in San Diego State’s last five games, while the teams have gone 10-5 in their last 15 meetings.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
