Colorado vs Baylor Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Colorado Buffaloes visit the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET with coverage on ESPN or ESPN2. This is a Big 12 matchup and a rematch of Colorado’s dramatic 38-31 overtime victory over Baylor in Boulder during the 2024 season. Colorado leads the all-time series 10-7. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Colorado Faces an Important Road Test

Colorado enters one of its more revealing early-season assignments because this is both a conference road game and a matchup against an opponent familiar with the Buffaloes. The previous meeting produced a seven-point overtime game, which is a reminder that there has been relatively little separating these programs when they have recently shared the field.

Colorado has generated 490 passing yards from its leading quarterback through its early schedule, while its leading rusher has accumulated 164 yards. Those figures suggest the Buffaloes remain more comfortable creating offense through the air than relying exclusively on the ground.

The concern is whether Colorado can maintain offensive efficiency in Waco. Road conference games frequently become possession battles, and Baylor has extra motivation after the extraordinary manner in which the 2024 meeting ended. Colorado needs to protect the football and avoid allowing the Bears to control the game on the ground.

Baylor Gets the Rematch at McLane Stadium

Baylor gets the advantage of playing this year’s meeting at McLane Stadium. The Bears have won seven of the 17 all-time meetings, but Colorado’s overtime victory in Boulder is the most relevant recent matchup between these programs.

The home-field component matters because this doesn’t profile as a game where either side should have an overwhelming personnel advantage. When two conference opponents are reasonably close, field position, turnovers and red-zone execution become more influential.

Baylor’s best path is controlling possession and preventing Colorado from establishing an offensive rhythm. The Bears don’t need to turn the game into a shootout. Forcing Colorado to sustain long drives instead of generating explosive gains would shift the matchup toward Baylor.

Colorado vs Baylor Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baylor -3 or Better

Home field is enough to break the tie for me in what otherwise looks like a competitive Big 12 matchup. The last meeting required overtime, and now Baylor gets Colorado in Waco. At a field goal or less, the Bears offer the better side. I would become considerably less interested if the number climbed through -4.

Pick: Under 58.5 or Higher

The previous meeting reached 69 points because it went to overtime, but this matchup doesn’t necessarily need to follow the same script. Baylor has an incentive to control possession rather than trade explosive plays with Colorado. A number approaching 60 gives us enough room to play the under in a conference game that could spend significant stretches being decided between the 20s.

Final Picks: Baylor -3 or Better and Under 58.5 or Higher