Duke vs. North Carolina, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks - Saturday, November 22, 2025
Duke and North Carolina resume their historic college football rivalry on Saturday in a must-see ACC conference game. Can the Blue Devils fight through and retain the Victory Bell for the first time since 2018? Find out more with our Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels prediction and picks for great side and total tips for this Week 13 matchup. In these teams' last meeting, Duke broke a run of five straight losses to NC with a close 21-20 win. It will be on the road in Chapel Hill, with kick-off scheduled for 3:30pm ET. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Duke slipping to finish the year
Duke (5-5, 4-2 in ACC) has suffered two bad losses in its last outings to fall away from the ACC conference title battle. Having fought to a thrilling 46-45 win over Clemson at the start of November, the Blue Devils were edged out in a non-conference visit to UConn and were then handled by Virginia, going down 34-17 in front of their own fans for their third loss of the year in Durham. Duke has gone 0-3 against non-conference FBS opposition in 2025, also dropping games to Illinois and Tulane.
In its last game, Duke was overwhelmed defensively as Virginia put up more than 500 yards in Durham and converted 12-19 third-down attempts. Highly rated sophomore quarterback Darian Mensah, conversely, had one of his worst games yet since transferring to Duke from Tulane in the offseason, completing 18-35 pass attempts for 213 yards and a TD against Virginia while getting sacked four times. He leads the ACC on the season with 242 completions, 3002 passing yards (8.4 Y/A, 300.7 Y/G) and 25 TDs. His most reliable outlet has been Cooper Barkate, who ranks 13th among FBS receivers with 869 yards while also catching for six TDs.
On the injury front, Duke's most significant absences are on defense. Linebackers Nick Morris and Elliot Schaper are out for the season. Tre Johnson (hamstring) remains day-to-day. Duke will have to wait and see whether the cornerback duo of Moussa Kane and Kimari Robinson make it back after sitting against Virginia.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Belichick oversees turbulent first year
The excitement over hiring Bill Belichick as head coach turned to disappointment for North Carolina (4-6, 2-4 in ACC) as the six-time Super Bowl winner found out that NFL success was no guarantee of a repeat in the college game. After going a disastrous 2-5 to start the year, the Tar Heels managed to stabilize with two straight conference wins over Syracuse and Stanford, but they were no match last time out for Wake Forest as the Demon Deacons ran out easy 28-12 winners over their in-state rivals.
North Carolina was once more let down by its offense in that latest reverse. All of the program's points came from field goals as the team failed to record a single touchdown against Wake Forest. Belichick is running a pass-heavy offense, which runs less than almost any other FBS program, just 48.2% of plays for a total of 29.6 carries per game. So far, quarterback Gio Lopez has struggled to carry that burden. Lopez completed 21-36 attempts for 201 yards last time out and for the season, averages 6.5 yards per attempt with eight TDs and five INTs. He's averaging just 158.3 yards per game and their top rusher is Demon June, who is averaging just 45.2 yards per game. North Carolina's execution when it counts has also been poor, with a third-down conversion rate of 30.8% (124th in FBS) and a RZ scoring rate of just 70.8% (126th in FBS).
The Tar Heels will once again be waiting on Thaddeus Dixon. The talented cornerback has sat since early October with an injury and missed out again against Wake Forest, having been marked as questionable before the game. DB Kaleb Cost also sat against Wake Forest, the first game he has missed this season.
Duke vs. North Carolina pick
Spread Pick for Duke vs. North Carolina
- North Carolina +7 (5 units)
As disappointing as the Tar Heels have been this year, I am backing them to keep it close and cover at home. Duke has fallen away badly in the second half of the year, with three losses in its last four outings. It is 0-3 ATS in its last three games rated as a favorite. North Carolina has gone 3-1 ATS in the last four as an underdog and is 4-1 ATS playing after a loss. Its flagging offense should get a boost against a Duke team that has defended badly against the pass all year, ranking 130th in college football by allowing 69.6% of throws to be caught and an average of 296.2 pass yards per game, a mark that places the Blue Devils 134th of 136 FBS programs.
Take the Tar Heels.
Over/Under Pick for Duke vs. North Carolina
- Under 51.5 (5 units)
Getting on the under is a smart bet with this North Carolina team. It is 1-3-1 on the over at home in 2025 and has scored more than 20 points in a game in front of its own fans on just one occasion this season. The Tar Heels average just 16.3 ppg so far, while their average total comes in at 39.8 points thanks to a tough defense that holds opponents to 4.9 yards per play (28th in FBS).
Take the under.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
