East Carolina Pirates vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction and Picks - October 9th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Thursday evening AAC College Football action, and we have an East Carolina vs Tulane Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Pirates enter this game off a solid 28-6 win over Army 12 days ago to move to 3-2 on the year. Tulane has had a strong start to their year, going 4-1 and they are off a 31-14 road win over Tulsa. Which team will pick up another AAC win? Read on to see our East Carolina vs Tulane prediction.
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ECU Pounds The Army
East Carolina enters this AAC matchup at 3–2 (1–0 conference) after a dominant 28–6 win over Army on September 25. The Pirates leaned on their defense, forcing two turnovers and holding Army’s run-heavy offense to just 183 total yards. Quarterback Katin Houser delivered his cleanest outing of the season, going 15-of-22 for 251 yards, two touchdowns, and a rushing score. WR Anthony Smith broke out with 87 yards and a touchdown on three catches, while RB London Montgomery added 58 yards on the ground. ECU’s defense has now held three of its last four opponents under 10 points, and they’ll need that same intensity against Tulane’s run-heavy scheme.
Statistically, East Carolina has been one of the most balanced teams in the AAC. They rank 26th nationally in total offense (456.0 YPG), including a top-10 passing attack at 315.0 YPG. Houser’s ability to stretch the field vertically has opened up the run game, though ECU still ranks just 92nd in rushing yards (141.0 YPG). Defensively, the Pirates are elite: 26th in total defense (304.2 YPG), 40th against the pass (186.4 YPG), and 44th against the run (117.8 YPG). Their scoring defense ranks 11th nationally at just 13.4 points allowed per game. The only concern is takeaways — ECU has forced just three all season, ranking 91st.
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Houser has thrown for 1,509 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions while completing 68.4% of his passes. His timing and pocket movement have improved each week, and he’s developed strong chemistry with Smith and TE Jayvontay Conner. Against Tulane’s vulnerable secondary — ranked 109th in passing defense (251.4 YPG) — Houser will have opportunities to attack downfield. ECU’s ability to protect him and convert third downs will be critical, especially with Tulane’s front seven likely to sell out against the run.
Tulane Grabs Easy Win Vs Tulsa
Tulane enters at 4–1 (1–0 AAC) after a 31–14 win over Tulsa on September 27. The Green Wave controlled the game with a 212-yard rushing performance and 35 minutes of possession. QB Jake Retzlaff was efficient, throwing for 242 yards and adding a rushing touchdown. RB Javin Gordon led the ground attack with 78 yards and three scores, while WR Omari Hayes posted 89 receiving yards. Tulane’s defense rebounded from a blowout loss to Ole Miss, forcing two turnovers and limiting Tulsa to 4.2 yards per play. The Green Wave leaned on physicality and tempo — a formula they’ll try to replicate against ECU’s disciplined front.
Tulane ranks 68th in total offense (394.4 YPG), with a run-first identity that’s produced 205.8 rushing yards per game — 29th nationally. Their passing game lags behind at 188.6 YPG (104th), but Retzlaff’s mobility has added a red-zone dimension that’s tough to defend. Tulane averages 26.2 points per game (84th) and has committed just four turnovers all season, ranking 24th in ball security. Defensively, the Green Wave have struggled: 102nd in total defense (399.0 YPG), 109th against the pass (251.4 YPG), and 73rd against the run (147.6 YPG). They’ve allowed 24.0 points per game (70th) but rank 26th in takeaways with six.
Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 820 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for 368 yards and 7 scores. His dual-threat ability is the centerpiece of Tulane’s offense, especially in short-yardage and red-zone situations. Retzlaff’s connection with Hayes and Shazz Preston gives Tulane reliable options in the intermediate game, but they’ll need to hit explosive plays to keep pace with ECU’s high-powered passing attack. Retzlaff’s ability to read ECU’s disguised coverages and deliver accurate throws under pressure will be pivotal in sustaining drives and keeping the Pirates’ defense off balance.
East Carolina vs Tulane Pick
East Carolina vs Tulane Spread Pick
- East Carolina +7 (4 Units)
East Carolina catching a full touchdown offers strong value in a matchup where they hold statistical and stylistic edges. The Pirates rank 26th nationally in total offense (456.0 YPG) and boast the 10th-best passing attack at 315.0 YPG — a direct mismatch against Tulane’s 109th-ranked pass defense (251.4 YPG). Katin Houser has quietly emerged as one of the AAC’s most efficient quarterbacks, and his ability to stretch the field vertically should expose a Green Wave secondary that’s been gashed repeatedly. ECU’s defense is also built to contain Tulane’s run-heavy approach, ranking 44th against the run and 11th in scoring defense. With Tulane’s offense skewing toward ground control and short possessions, ECU’s explosive play potential gives them a clear path to cover — and possibly win outright.
Tulane’s 4–1 record masks some underlying concerns. Despite their success on the ground, they rank just 84th in scoring offense and 104th in passing — a limited profile against an ECU defense that’s allowed just 13.4 points per game. Jake Retzlaff’s dual-threat ability is a weapon, but he’s thrown only two touchdowns all season and will face a disciplined front that’s allowed just three total touchdowns in the last three games. Tulane’s defense has also struggled to get off the field, ranking 102nd in total yards allowed and giving up over 24 points per game. With ECU’s offensive balance and defensive consistency, grabbing +7 feels like a sharp play in a game that projects closer to a coin flip than a touchdown spread.
East Carolina vs Tulane Over/Under Pick
- Under 55 (5 Units)
This total sits well above what either team has shown offensively or defensively in 2025, making the Under 55 a sharp play. East Carolina ranks 11th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 13.4 points per game, and has held three of its last four opponents under 10. Tulane’s offense is run-heavy and methodical, averaging just 26.2 points per game (84th), while their passing attack ranks 104th — limiting explosive scoring potential. On the other side, ECU’s offense is efficient, but Tulane’s defense, despite its yardage issues, has allowed just 24.0 points per game. With both teams leaning on ball control and red-zone containment, this matchup profiles as a grind with limited possessions and a strong chance to stay well below the posted number.
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