Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks – Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Kentucky Wildcats will host the Florida Gators this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Florida vs. Kentucky prediction. Both teams enter Week 11 with 3-5 overall records; Florida has won two SEC games to this point, while Kentucky beat Auburn last weekend to notch their first conference win of the season. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 8. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Florida 0-1 after one game since firing Napier
The Florida Gators are 3-5 this season and 2-3 in SEC play, putting them at 11th out of 16 teams in the conference standings. They've lost each of their conference games to opponents ranked within the Top 5 of the AP Top 25 at the time–most recently No. 5 Georgia, whom they fell to 24-20 last week.
Florida had Georgia on the ropes for much of last week's rivalry game, leading for multiple stretches before giving up the go-ahead touchdown with under four minutes to play. The Gators' offense gained 281 yards while their defense allowed 361, and the defense secured an interception on the Bulldogs' third possession while the offense didn't turn the ball over. D.J. Lagwa completed 15 of 24 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, adding 24 yards on the ground without taking a sack. The team totalled 115 yards and a touchdown on the ground over 32 carries, averaging 3.6 yards per carry–just over the 3.5 yards per carry averaged by the Bulldogs. Eugene Wilson carried the team's air attack, catching nine of Lagway's 15 completions for 121 yards and a touchdown. It wasn't the prettiest game, but the Gators looked much closer to the Bulldogs this season than their record to this point would've led casual observers to expect.
This game was the first the Gators played since firing head coach Billy Napier, who'd led the team since the start of the 2022 season and finished his run with a 22-23 overall record. Billy Gonzales, the team's receivers coach, has taken over as the interim head coach. The Gators had a bye in Week 9 between Napier's 23-21 win over Mississippi State and Gonzales' loss to Georgia.
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Kentucky notches first SEC win against Auburn
The Kentucky Wildcats are 3-5 overall and 1-5 in conference play, which slots them in at 13th in the SEC standings. They'd buoyed their overall record with wins against Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23) before entering conference play, but pulled out a 10-3 road win over Auburn last week to climb a few rungs in the standings.
Cutter Boley completed 18 of 29 passes for the Wildcats, throwing a touchdown and two interceptions while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Wildcats' ground game averaged only 2.5 yards per carry–Seth McGowan led the group with 53 yards on 21 carries, coming out to a rounded 2.5 per-carry average himself. The group's lack of production didn't matter, because the Wildcats' defense racked up an interception, four pass defenses, seven sacks, and 13 total tackles for loss against a Tigers offense that never lucked into the endzone. Kentucky finished the game with exactly one fewer yard than Auburn–240 yards to their 241. The Tigers resorted to going for it on fourth down on three of their ten failed third-down conversions, ending two more drives in turnovers on downs.
Kentucky enters Week 11 ranked 96th in passing yards (201.3), 81st in rushing yards (144.9), 103rd in points (22.4), and 86th in points allowed (26.8) per game among 136 FBS teams. They aren't likely to beat Florida with as little offensive production as they garnered against Auburn.
Spread Pick for Florida vs. Kentucky
- Florida -3.0 (-115) (4 Units)
It's only been one game in the post-Napier era, but Florida looked a lot more like the teams Kentucky has been losing to than Auburn in their 24-20 loss to Georgia. Kentucky faced Georgia earlier in October, then failed to cover as 20-point underdogs in a 35-14 loss. That alone makes for a tenuous argument that Florida is better than Kentucky, but the Gators have played closer games against higher-ranked opponents than Kentucky en route to a better conference record. Florida is a three-point favorite on the road here–the lowest margin by which any SEC team has been favored against Kentucky this season. I'd lean toward the Gators covering.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs. Kentucky
- Under 44.5 (-105) (4 Units)
The Wildcats have played two games in the last three weeks where neither team reached 20 points, and they've only hit 20 points themselves once in their last five games. The Team Total Under is 6-2 in Florida games this season, only failing to hit in their 29-21 win over Texas and their 34-17 loss at Texas A&M. Granted, 44.5 is a low pregame line–the Gators' last two games against Georgia (24-20) and Mississippi State (23-21) both ended with exactly 44 points scored. I'd still take the under as the line is, but there isn't a lot of room for it to go lower.
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