Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Prediction and Picks - September 13, 2025
The LSU Tigers and Florida Gators will each play their first SEC conference game of the 2025 season this Saturday night in Baton Rouge. We'll preview the lines and odds in our Florida vs. LSU prediction – the Tigers, who enter the week at No. 3 in the AP Top 25, are favored to win at home by 7.5 points. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 13.
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How will Florida Rebound from USF loss?
The Florida Gators are 1-1 early in the 2025 college football season after suffering one of the highest-profile losses of Week 2: a 16-18 home loss to the South Florida Bulls. The Gators didn't score a touchdown in the game until the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, gave up a safety after botching the snap on a punt, and lost 103 yards across 11 penalties. It was a good game for a USF program that's now opened the year with consecutive upset wins against ranked teams, but it leaves the Gators in a precarious spot ahead of an SEC schedule that doesn't figure to offer many breaks. Of Florida's ten remaining opponents, eight currently rank in the AP Top 25–starting with LSU, who ranks highest of all at No. 3, this Saturday.
D.J. Lagway, a sophomore in his second season as Florida's starter, has completed 38 of 51 passes for 342 yards and four touchdowns through two games. The other three touchdowns came in the team's 55-0 rout of Long Island in Week 1, a game where Lagway was efficient but only attempted 18 passes before the backups took the field. Jaden Baugh has carried the load for this team on the ground, going for 104 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Long Island and 93 yards on 18 carries against USF.
Florida hasn't won many of their recent matchups with LSU, but they won 27-16 when it hosted LSU in 2024. Their last win in Baton Rouge came in 2016, in a 16-10 game where LSU couldn't convert 219 rushing yards from a combination of future NFL players into points.
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Can LSU Stay Atop SEC?
The LSU Tigers enter Week 3 of the 2025 college football season at No. 3 in the AP Top 25, but they haven't yet played like a dominant force against any of their opponents. Week 1 saw the Tigers travel to Clemson, emerging from the highly anticipated matchup with a 17-10 win despite entering as 5.5-point underdogs. Week 2 saw them host Louisiana Tech as 36.5-point favorites—they won 23-7, leaving several fans and onlookers wanting more from the Tigers' offense.
Garrett Nussmeier, the Tigers' fifth-year senior quarterback in his second season as the team's starter, has thrown for two touchdowns and an interception while taking four sacks through two games. His completion percentage (68.4 percent) is at a career high, but his yards-per-attempt average (5.9) is lower than it's been since 2021. The offense was effective overall against the Bulldogs, to be clear – they gained 365 yards while allowing 154 on defense, converted 27 first downs while allowing 12, and went 9-of-16 on third down while holding the Bulldogs to 3-of-13 – but we're still waiting to see a higher gear from a group that's supposed to have it.
Defensively, the Tigers still rank 11th among Division I teams in yards allowed per game (207.5), 7th in rushing yards allowed (44.5), and 13th in points allowed (8.5). They've held opposing quarterbacks to a 53.1 completion percentage and 5.1 yards per attempt. Even if the offense plods through their game with Florida, the Tigers' defense might still be enough to carry the night.
Florida vs LSU Pick
Spread Pick for Florida vs LSU
- Florida +7.5 (-115) (4 Units)
Florida and head coach Billy Napier are playing for national relevance after losing last week's game to South Florida. They only need to lose by a touchdown or less—if they don't win outright—to cover here. LSU has averaged 20 points a game on offense through two weeks; if they don't raise the ceiling on their offensive production, they won't give Florida a terribly high bar to clear. I'd expect a closer game here.
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Over/Under Pick for Florida vs LSU
- Under 47.5 (-110) (5 Units)
The Team Total Under is 2-0 in both the Gators' and Tigers' games thus far, with the teams falling over two scores short of hitting the over in every game but the Gators' win over Long Island. Hitting 47.5 here would require one of these teams to lapse on defense or unlock something on offense that they haven't yet displayed this season. It's too early for the oddsmakers to adjust lines so far down, but I wouldn't take the over here based on what I've seen from either team thus far.
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