Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11
Use Code SSWC The Florida Gators will visit the No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Florida vs. Texas A&M prediction. Florida has built some momentum, following a 1-3 start with a 29-21 home upset win over No. 9 Texas in Week 6, while Texas A&M has cruised out to a 5-0 start after a 31-9 home win over Mississippi State last Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 11.
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Can Gators look strong in road trip to College Station?
The Florida Gators were left for dead early in the season after a home upset loss to South Florida (18-16) and road losses to ranked opponents LSU (20-10) and Miami (26-7). One Week 5 bye later, the Gators emerged 29-21 from a home game against the visiting No. 9 Texas Longhorns. The team is still tied for the worst overall record in the SEC at 2-3, but they're now 10th in the conference standings after the win and enter Week 7 with recalibrated expectations.
Florida didn't just beat Texas in Week 6–they took the lead early and held it throughout the game, entering halftime up 19-7 and staying no fewer than eight points ahead through the second half. Sophomore quarterback D.J. Lagway bounced back in a big way, throwing for a season-high 298 yards and 10.6 yards per attempt, blowing out his previous high of 6.7 yards per attempt against South Florida. He completed 21 of 28 passes for two touchdowns, posting his highest completion percentage and first multi-touchdown game since the team's 55-0 Week 1 win over FCS Long Island, and he didn't take a sack for the first time this season after taking seven total against LSU and Miami.
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The Gators still average near the middle of the FBS at 73rd in passing yards (223.8), 101st in rushing yards (130.2), and T-100th in points (23.4) per game, but they're tied for 26th in with only 17.0 points allowed per game despite playing three ranked opponents. Their defense should prove to be a challenge for the Aggies in Week 7, and should help the Gators to keep the game close if their offense doesn't look nearly as sharp.
Aggies 2-0 through early SEC schedule
The Texas A&M Aggies are fifth in the AP Top 25 after a decisive 31-9 win over Mississippi State in Week 6, which they secured following a 16-10 home win against Auburn to open SEC play in Week 5. They're now second in the conference standings behind Ole Miss, the only one of the nine ranked SEC teams to still be ahead of them in the AP Top 25. After A&M failed to translate their dominance over Auburn into more than a six-point win on the scoreboard, their 22-point win over a Mississippi State team that entered the game 4-1 was a welcome improvement.
The Aggies ran circles around the Bulldogs–gaining 479 yards while allowing only 219, converting 23 first downs while allowing only 14, and converting seven third downs on 15 attempts while allowing the Bulldogs to convert only once on ten tries. The points didn't come early, but the Aggies blitzed the Bulldogs with three straight touchdown drives around the turn of the fourth quarter to turn a 7-3 lead into 28-3, effectively putting the game away with fewer than ten minutes left to play. Sophomore back Rueben Owens II carried the day, logging 142 yards on 21 carries–more than doubling his season totals in both categories and announcing himself in a big way after his 2024 season was lost to injury. Sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed completed only 13 of 23 passes for 180 yards, averaging a 56.5 completion percentage and 7.8 yards per attempt, but found the endzone twice on passes to receiver K.C. Concepcion.
A&M ranks 35th in passing yards (271.4), 37th in rushing yards (195.4), 44th in points (34.8), and T-49th in points allowed (21.0) per game heading into Week 7. They've eclipsed 30 points against four of five opponents they've played, but they'll be facing a Florida defense this Saturday that hasn't allowed more than 26 to anyone they've faced.
Defensively, they've allowed just 19 points in their first two SEC games and opponents have converted just 1 of 23 in the past two weeks on third downs.
Florida vs Texas A&M Pick
Spread Pick for Florida vs Texas A&M
- Florida +7.5 (-110) (4 Units)
With the low point totals Florida has allowed, they haven't made it easy for teams to beat them by more than a touchdown–regardless of how their own offense performed. They won at home against Texas last week after entering the game as 4.5-point underdogs, and they're hosting a Texas A&M team that was 0-3 against the spread as a favorite this season before covering against Mississippi State. The Aggies have been hit-or-miss this season at translating yardage gains into points; I'd take the Gators to keep things uncomfortably close.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs Texas A&M
- Under 47.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 4-1 in Florida games this season and 2-0 in A&M games since they've hit the SEC portion of their schedule. Florida's season-high in points allowed this season came in their 26-7 loss to Miami; I'd expect A&M to finish somewhere short of that mark, closer to their point total against Auburn than what they pulled off late against Mississippi State. Florida wasn't part of a game that hit the over until they upset Texas last week–it'd be an extraordinary turn of events if they pulled off a similar game, on the road, against a higher-ranked opponent.
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