Florida International (FIU) Panthers at Missouri State Bears Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Use Code SSWC The FIU Panthers travel to Springfield to face the Missouri State Bears at Robert W. Plaster Stadium on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET, on CBSSN. Florida International enters at 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Conference USA, while Missouri State sits at 4-3 and 2-1 in CUSA play. The Panthers look to recover after dropping two of the last three, while the Bears look for a third straight win following a dramatic overtime victory. Your Saturday scout: NCAAF predictions for Florida International Panthers at Missouri State Bears you can trust.
FIU Looks to Rebound After Costly Home Defeat
Florida International enters this week averaging 26.7 points per game while allowing 32.6. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins has thrown for 1,255 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions on 127 completions, giving the offense balance. The Panthers’ rushing attack centers on Kejon Owens, who has totaled 824 yards and seven touchdowns on 118 carries, averaging nearly seven yards per attempt. Owens’ explosiveness keeps FIU competitive even when the passing game struggles. The offense averages 341 total yards per game but continues to battle inconsistency in red-zone execution.
Defensively, FIU’s front seven has produced limited pressure, totaling just 12 sacks, with Keegan Davis leading that group with three. Linebacker Johnny Chaney Jr. is the leading tackler, with 64 total stops. The secondary has faced issues containing big plays, giving up 51 points earlier this month at Connecticut and another 45 to Kennesaw State last week. Florida International has allowed over 400 yards in consecutive games, and the unit must tighten coverage against a Missouri State passing attack that has been effective in back-to-back wins.
In the latest outing, the Panthers fell 45-26 at home to Kennesaw State. Jenkins threw for 296 yards and a late touchdown while Owens ran for 151 yards and a score, but the defense couldn’t slow the Owls early. Jenkins is listed as questionable for this game with a back injury. Joe Pesanksy has seen the most action behind Jenkins with 188 yards, but has two picks. FIU trailed 24-7 by halftime and surrendered four consecutive scoring drives in the opening half. Despite improved second-half drives, the Panthers couldn’t recover.
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Injuries:
- K. Jenkins (QB) – Questionable
- R. Czeremcha (K) – Questionable
- K. Smith (DL) – Questionable
- D. Nunoo (LB) – Questionable
- B. Staten (TE) – Questionable
- D. Payne (TE) – Questionable, hand
- D. Michel (OG) – Questionable
- J. Lewis (WR) – Out, knee
Missouri State Seeks Third Straight Win Behind Efficient Offense
Missouri State enters this matchup averaging 25.0 points per game while allowing 21.9. Quarterback Jacob Clark has been productive, throwing for 1,478 yards with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions on 116-of-179 passing. When Clark limits turnovers, the Bears’ offense moves the chains often. Running back Shomari Lawrence has added balance with 446 rushing yards and two scores, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. The receiving corps is paced by Dash Luke, who has 339 yards and two touchdowns, and Ronnel Johnson, who has become Clark’s red-zone target.
Defensively, Missouri State has shown improvement in recent weeks. Linebacker Jared Lloyd leads the team with 39 tackles, while Davon Townley Jr. has generated two sacks. The defense has forced timely turnovers, including a game-ending interception last week. The Bears allow 23.7 points per game and just over 350 total yards, ranking near the middle of the nation in both categories. The pass defense has improved, holding opponents under 220 passing yards in two of the last three outings.
In the most recent game, Missouri State outlasted New Mexico State 24-17 in overtime. Clark threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns, including a 7-yard scoring pass to Johnson in the extra period. Lawrence carried for 97 yards, and the Bears' defense came up clutch when Dylan Dixson intercepted a pass on the Aggies’ first overtime possession. The win marked Missouri State’s second consecutive victory over an FBS opponent and its fourth win overall.
Injuries:
- H. Lillibridge (OG) – Out
- G. McBride (CB) – Questionable
- H. Hagler (TE) – Questionable
- C. Loaiza (OG) – Questionable
- G. Clinton (TE) – Out, leg
Florida International Panthers at Missouri State Bears Pick
Spread Pick for FIU vs. Missouri State
- Missouri State -3.5 (4 Units)
Missouri State’s recent form and balanced offense provide a slight edge at home. Clark’s command of the passing game and Lawrence’s steady production on the ground will challenge an FIU defense that’s allowed 96 points over its last two losses. The quarterback situation with Jenkins banged up and possibly not playing, doesn't help matters for the Panthers. The Bears have an effective passing game and recent improvements on defense make them a strong play against the spread.
Over/Under Pick for FIU vs. Missouri State
- Under 52.5 (4 Units)
Both defenses have struggled at different times this season, but Missouri State’s home-field success and FIU’s inconsistent scoring while in the red zone with an injured QB or inexperienced backup will likely result in a lower total. The Panthers have averaged just 19 points in the last three games, while the Bears use time-consuming drives through running the ball with Lawrence and Clark. Expect a slower tempo and a total ending below the posted number.
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