Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers Prediction and Picks – Friday, September 26
The Florida State Seminoles will travel to play the Virginia Cavaliers in a spotlight game this Friday night, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Florida State vs. Virginia prediction. The Seminoles are 3-0 entering this matchup and will play a Cavaliers team that's 3-1. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, September 26.
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Will Seminoles' passing game be tested against UVA?
The Florida State Seminoles are 3-0 to open the 2025 season and sit at No. 8 in the AP Top 25 heading into Week 4. They won 31-17 at home against Alabama in Week 1, winning by 14 points in a game they entered as 13.5-point underdogs. Their next two weeks went smoothly, if uneventfully – a 77-3 win over FCS East Texas A&M and a 66-10 win over Kent State. Both games saw the Seminoles cover 45-point spreads and score enough on their own to eclipse the pregame total line. They're the kind of games you'd want to see from the Seminoles against that level of competition, but there's only so much insight that can be drawn from them regarding the Seminoles' performance against Virginia or any other upcoming ACC opponent.
Overall, the Seminoles rank 39th among FBS teams in passing yards (265.7), second in rushing yards (363.0), second in points scored (58.0), and 12th in points allowed (10.0) per game. They're impressive numbers, albeit from a small sample size and representative of the Seminoles' opponents as much as themselves.
Tommy Castellanos, the team's senior starting quarterback, has only attempted 38 passes this season–which went for 594 yards and three touchdowns. The 71.1% completion percentage and 15.6 yards per attempt are impressive, but his arm has firmly taken a back seat in the Noles' passing offense to the rushing offense. Casetellanos is dealing with a lower leg injury, but is expected to play. FSU gained 230 yards and four touchdowns across 49 carries against Alabama, while Castellanos went 9/14 for only 152 yards in the air. He attempted fewer passes against East Texas A&M and Kent State before the reserve quarterbacks played out each game. We'll see whether the Cavaliers can give the Noles' passing attack a stress test that it hasn't yet faced.
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Virginia starting strong with transfer-headlined offense
If the Virginia Cavaliers hadn't lost a 14-24 halftime lead to the NC State Wolfpack in Week 2, they'd have likely received votes for the AP Top 25 heading into Week 5. Their resume includes a 48-7 win over Coastal Carolina, a narrow 31-35 road loss to NC State, a 55-16 win over FCS William & Mary, and – most recently – a 48-20 home win over Stanford. Every game except the NC State loss, which the UVA entered as three-point underdogs, ended with the Cavaliers covering the spread. They scored enough in the latter two games to hit the pregame point total on their own – eclipsing the 53.5-point line against the Tribe and hitting 48.0 against the Cardinal.
Virginia ranks 20th among FBS teams in passing yards per game (313.0) and 13th in rushing yards per game (251.5). They scored early and often against the Cardinal, with Chandler Morris finding Trell Harris for three first-quarter touchdowns before running one in himself to put UVA up 28-7 early in the second quarter. Morris has been as advertised in his first year in Charlottesville after spending the past five seasons at Oklahoma, TCU, and as a one-year starter for North Texas. He's been supported by a strong run game headlined by senior back J'Mari Taylor, who ran for 150 yards and three touchdowns on 17 carries against NC State, and who himself is a first-year player at UVA after three seasons at North Carolina Central.
Seminoles vs Cavaliers Pick
Spread Pick for Seminoles vs Cavaliers
- Virginia +7.0 (-115) (4 Units)
The Cavaliers have shown an ability to move the ball through the air that the Seminoles' offense hasn't – whether because they don't have it or merely haven't needed it, we don't know. Either way, I don't think there's a score the Seminoles could run out to where I'd be concerned with the Cavaliers' ability to keep up. Whether this game is high-scoring or low-scoring, I'd take it to be close. I'm leaning toward Virginia, at home, covering as 7.0-point underdogs.
Over/Under Pick for Seminoles vs Cavaliers
- Over 59.5 (-110) (4 Units)
Both of these offenses could come crashing down from what they've been putting up against recent opponents and still cover a 59.5-point total line. The Team Total Over is undefeated thus far in both teams' 2025 games, and both teams did far more of the work to hit those totals than they allowed their opponents to. The low point for both teams' scoring outputs this season is 31 points – the Seminoles' 31-17 win over Alabama and the Cavaliers' 31-35 loss to NC State. I'd take the over as long as the line remains below 60.
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