Florida State vs Miami Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 17 2026
One of the biggest rivalries in college football will take place when the Florida State Seminoles tackle the Miami Hurricanes. Kick off is scheduled for Saturday October, 17 2026 at 7:00 pm EST. Hard Rock Stadium will play host and the game will be televised on ESPN. The Hurricanes are a deserving 21-point favorite and the total is sitting at 55.5. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.
Florida State no longer an elite program
The Florida State Seminoles have dropped 20 of their previous 30 games and head coach Mike Norvell is squarely on the hot seat. In their three losses this season, the Seminoles (3-3) surrendered an alarming 121 points total. On Friday, Florida State was unable to protect an early 14-point lead during a 44-20 road loss against Louisville.
Florida State senior QB Ashton Daniels completed 21 of 37 passes for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Track star Michai Danzy was on the receiving end of both scores and finished with 50 yards. RB Ousmane Kromah rushed for 88 yards for the Seminoles, who were gashed for 537 total yards.
Florida State ranks in the middle of the ACC in total offense (409.5 ypg) and averages 31 points per game. The Seminoles rank 87th nationally in turnover margin, but are an impressive 7th in red zone efficiency. Florida State ranks near the bottom of the conference in total defense and gives up 25.3 points on average.
Miami dominant on both sides of the ball
The Miami Hurricanes are the class of the ACC and appear to be a lock for a second consecutive College Football Playoff berth. The third-ranked Hurricanes (5-0) are undefeated through three conference games and their closest victory was by 13 at Wake Forest. Last time out, Miami limited Clemson to 55 rushing yards to earn a 41-13 road triumph.
Heisman Trophy candidate Darian Mensah had his lowest output of the season with 227 passing yards and a touchdown. Senior RB Mark Fletcher Jr. carried 16 times for 77 yards and two scores. Duke transfer WR Cooper Barkate contributed 98 receiving yards and a touchdown for the Hurricanes.
Miami is leading the nation in total offense (554.8 ypg) and is scoring a shade below 50 points per game. The Hurricanes are tops in passing success rate at 62.3 percent and have generated 27 explosive pass plays. Miami is the best defensive unit in the ACC Conference and is limiting the opposition to 9,8 points on average.
Florida State vs Miami Picks and Prediction
Pick: Miami -21
Miami leads the all-time series against Florida State with a 37-33 record and have emerged victorious in consecutive years. The Seminoles need to run the ball to be successful, but the Hurricanes rank first nationally against the run. The Hurricanes are dynamic through the air and will carve up a 114th ranked Florida State secondary. Take Miami to cover the big number at home.
Pick: Over 55.5
Miami owns a 4-1 O/U record and their games are going over the total by an average of 5.5 points. Florida State is 2-4 O/U, but they have not faced an offense like the Hurricanes. WR Malachi Toney had a quiet game against Clemson and will show out against the in-state rival. Take the over.