Florida vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Picks – Saturday, November 15, 2025
The Florida Gators will visit the Ole Miss Rebels for a Saturday night kickoff this week, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction. The Gators are 3-6 and coming off an ugly 38-7 loss to Kentucky, while the Rebels are 9-1 and in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 13.
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Gators reach new low this season after Kentucky loss
It's been a rough season to this point for the Florida Gators, and things don't figure to get any easier this week. Florida is 3-6 entering this matchup, 2-4 against SEC opponents, and 14-point underdogs on the road against a Rebels team currently ranked seventh in the College Football Playoff Rankings.
The Gators' loss to the Kentucky Wildcats last week might've set a new low point for their season. Florida entered the game as 5.5-point favorites, then barely scored more than 5.5 points in the 38-7 loss. The Gators' first possession ended with an interception from quarterback D.J. Lagway; by the end of the first half, he'd thrown two more. Lagway finished the game having completed 11 of 19 passes for 83 yards, a touchdown, and three picks. Freshman backup Tramell Jones Jr. took over after Lagway was benched, completing 9 of 17 passes for 60 yards without a touchdown or interception. Interim coach Billy Gonzales–who took over the Gators after head coach Billy Napier was fired weeks ago–has maintained that Lagway is the starter heading into Week 12. For the season, Lagway is averaging a 64.5 completion percentage and 6.6 yards per attempt. He's thrown 11 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, and he's taken 14 sacks en route to a 1.3 yards per carry average.
Florida ranks 85th in passing yards per game (217.0), 105th in rushing yards per game (124.0), T-116th in points (20.4), and T-54th in points allowed (22.4). Their defense will have a tough time trying to keep things close against a high-flying Ole Miss offense.
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How high can Rebels rise in playoff rankings?
The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the best-positioned teams in the College Football Playoff race, entering Week 12 at seventh in the most recent rankings. They're 9-1 overall and 5-1 in conference, with their only loss coming by a score of 43-35 against a Georgia Bulldogs team that's currently ranked fifth. The only games left on the Rebels' regular season schedule are this weekend's game against the Gators and their annual rivalry game with the Mississippi State Bulldogs–one of the five teams currently ranked below Florida in the SEC standings.
There isn't much to take from the Rebels' game last week–they won 49-0 against The Citadel, just failing to cover as 52.5-point favorites. The Rebels gained 603 yards while allowing only 106, gained 35 first downs while allowing only five, and gained more points in the first quarter (21) than The Citadel gained yards (nine). Trinidad Chambliss had an easy day at quarterback, completing 29 of 33 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns before the starters left the game. He's thrown for 2,356 yards–the 23rd-highest mark in the FBS–and 13 touchdowns this year, with only two interceptions and seven sacks taken.
Ole Miss ranks eighth in passing yards per game (305.3), 38th in rushing yards per game (183.9), 13th in points (37.5), and 24th in points allowed (19.8). They're up to a three-game win streak after beating the Citadel, having taken out Oklahoma (34-26) and South Carolina (30-14) in their two preceding games.
Florida vs. Ole Miss Pick
Spread Pick for Florida vs. Ole Miss
- Ole Miss -14.5 (-110) (5 Units)
The Gators are coming off their least-competitive game of the season against one of the least-daunting opponents on their schedule. There's no momentum here, and there's nothing left for them to play for beyond an outside chance to claw back into bowl eligibility. The Rebels have plenty to play for, are coming off a rout against a lower-tier opponent, and only need something over two touchdowns to cover as the favorites here. I'd be surprised if Florida kept this game close enough to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs. Ole Miss
- Over 53.5 (-110) (4 Units)
There's plenty to be said for the Gators' defense this season, which has held far more of their opponents than not to fewer than 30 points, but they're also coming off a 38-7 loss to Kentucky that came despite the Wildcats' offense committing four turnovers. Kentucky, even with the win, ranks outside the top 70 FBS teams in passing yards, rushing yards, and points per game. Ole Miss is a significant step up in difficulty, and they've shown the fortitude to cover most of the 54 points required to hit the over by themselves.
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