Florida vs Texas Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 17, 2026
The Florida Gators will travel to Austin, Texas, Saturday afternoon for an SEC matchup against the Texas Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 PM with national coverage on ABC. Florida enters the weekend with a 4-2 overall record and a 2-2 mark in conference play after an inconsistent opening stretch. Texas comes into this game ranked No. 7 nationally with a 4-1 overall record and a 1-1 mark in conference play following a difficult loss against Oklahoma. Texas is a 11.5-point favorite, with the total set at 51.5 points. The Longhorns are -440 on the moneyline, while Florida comes in at +340. For more action, check out our College Football Picks.
Florida tries to end their skid
Aaron Philo is leading the Florida offense this season with 1341 yards and 9 touchdowns on 105 completions, along with 104 yards and three scores on 44 carries. Jadan Baugh is the top ball carrier on the team with 110 carries for 672 yards and 12 scores this season. Duke Clark has added 265 yards and three touchdowns on 36 carries. Dallas Wilson is the top receiver on the Florida roster with 376 yards and three touchdowns on 26 catches. Vernell Brown III has added 271 yards and two scores on 17 catches, and Bailey Stockton has chipped in 23 grabs for 258 yards and two touchdowns.
Offensively, Florida struggled immensely last week, scoring just 19 points on 387 total yards after converting only six third downs and turning the ball over three times in the game. Defensively, Florida was obliterated, giving up 38 points, including 21 in the second half on 393 yards. Aaron Philo led the Florida offense last week, completing 21 passes for 227 yards and one score and ran the ball 13 times for 32 yards. Tramell Jones Jr. saw time under center for Florida last week, completing 6 passes for 40 yards. Jadan Baugh led the way out of the Florida backfield with 59 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries. Bailey Stockton was the top target with eight catches for 127 yards and one score.
Texas looks to climb back up the polls
Arch Manning is leading the Texas offensive season with 1122 yards and 10 touchdowns on 92 completions, along with 102 yards on 39 carries. Hollywood Smothers is the top running back on the Texas roster with 237 yards and two touchdowns on 53 carries. Raleek Brown has also added 53 carries for 218 yards and four scores. Cam Coleman is leading Texas this season with 318 yards and five touchdowns on 17 receptions. Ryan Wingo has added 21 catches for 296 yards and three scores this season.
Defensively, Texas had their troubles last week, giving up 27 points, including 17 in the fourth quarter on 238 total yards. Offensively, Texas did move the ball well, compiling 382 yards to score 24 points but converted just three third downs and turned the ball over twice in the loss. Arch Manning led the way for Texas last week, completing 19 passes for 260 yards and three scores, but he also threw 2 interceptions. Derrek Cooper led the way on the ground for Texas with 41 yards on 8 carries. Cam Coleman was the top target in the Texas offense with 110 yards and one touchdown on five receptions. Ryan Wingo added two catches for 57 yards and one score period
Florida vs Texas Picks and Prediction
Pick: Texas Longhorns -11.5
Texas returns home Saturday afternoon looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss against Oklahoma. The Longhorns have enough talent on both sides of the football to take advantage of a Florida team that has struggled with consistency throughout the season. Texas should be able to establish its offensive rhythm and create scoring opportunities against the Gators defense. Arch Manning should have his feet under him in a big bounce-back spot to lead the Longhorns against the Gators. Florida will need to protect the football and avoid allowing the Longhorns to build an early advantage. The Gators have shown flashes of strong play but could have difficulty matching the overall talent and depth of Texas. Look for the Longhorns to respond with a strong performance and secure an important SEC win and cover at home.
Pick: Under 51.5
Florida and Texas could find themselves in a competitive defensive matchup Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns have enough defensive talent to limit Florida's ability to create explosive plays and should be able to put consistent pressure on the Gators offense. Florida will need to establish its running game and control possession to keep Texas from creating too many scoring opportunities. The Longhorns should find success moving the football, but they may rely on a balanced offensive approach rather than attempting to turn this game into a high-scoring contest. Both teams have enough defensive ability to produce several important stops throughout the afternoon. Texas will come into this game looking for a statement against a Florida team that has struggled immensely on offense the last few weeks. Take the under Saturday in Austin.