Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos Pick and Prediction November 1st, 2025
Two teams in the Mountain West Conference will go head-to-head when Boise State hosts Fresno State on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EST in Albertsons Stadium. Check out our Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos pick and prediction here!
Fresno State is currently 6th in the conference with a 2-2 conference record and a 5-3 overall record. They are hoping to avoid making it a three-game losing streak with a win on Saturday. Meanwhile, Boise State is sitting at the top of the conference with a 4-0 conference record and a 6-2 overall record. They are on a three-game winning streak and are looking to make it four with a home win. Boise State is favored by 17 points favorite while the total is set at 50.5 points. Can Fresno State come up with an upset win on the road?
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Bulldogs Beaten Badly
Fresno State got shut out in their most recent contest, losing by a score of 23-0 to the South Carolina Gamecocks. Carson Conklin went 20/42 for 182 yards and two interceptions while Rayshon Luke led the receiving group with five catches for 35 yards. The ground game was virtually non-existent, as Bryson Donelson and Luke each had 23 yards rushing to lead the team. Simeon Harris had seven tackles and Jahzon Jacks managed to earn a sack. Alzillion Hamilton had the lone pick on the day.
E.J. Warner is the primary QB for the Bulldogs, and he has completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,486 yards, ten touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Donelson leads the team in rushing with 428 yards, while Luke is second with 407 but has the most touchdowns with five. Josiah Freeman has the most receptions and yards with 27 and 326, respectively. He also has a team-high four TD receptions. On the defensive side, Jadon Pearson has the most total tackles with 65, while nobody else has more than 32. Jakari Embry has four passes defended to lead the squad and four different players have at least two picks on the season. Ten players are listed on the injury report for the Bulldogs, with six players listed as questionable and the rest are out.
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Broncos Roaming at the Top
Boise State took care of business last week, defeating Nevada by a score of 24-3. Maddux Madsen went 15/28 at the QB position for 174 yards and an interception, while Sire Gaines led the ground game with 62 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Cameron Bates needed only one catch to lead the team in yards receiving with 37 and Ty Benefield led the defense with five tackles and a tackle assist. Jeremiah Earby had two interceptions in the game, and four different players had half a sack.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
Madsen is the primary QB for the Broncos, completing 60.2% of his passes for 1,998 yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Dylan Riley leads the rushing attack with 729 yards and seven touchdowns on 98 carries, while Sire Gaines is trailing behind with 92 carries for 434 yards and five touchdowns. While Latrell Caples has the most receptions with 25 and Ben Ford has the most TD receptions with five, Chris Marshall has the most receiving yards with 467. Benefield has the most total tackles with 55 and Earby leads the secondary with five passes defended on the year. A'Marion McCoy has a team-high four interceptions. Braxton Fely is the sack leader on the squad with five. Seven players are listed on the injury report, including Ford and Marshall. All are considered out for this contest.
Fresno State vs Boise State Pick
Spread Pick for Fresno State vs Boise State
- Boise State Broncos -17 (4 units)
Boise State hasn't lost against the spread since the first game of this season. For that alone, I might as well stick to what has been working. However, there is more to it. Fresno State has officially benched E.J. Warner and replaced him with Carson Conklin, who didn't exactly wow anyone with his last performance. Considering the team put up zero points, I expect Boise State to hold Fresno State's offense down while they take some time to figure out their new situation. Aside from their game against Notre Dame, Boise State has scored an average of over 44 points per game since the start of September. I expect Boise State to keep that trend going against an inferior defense, and they should run away with an easy victory here.
Over/Under pick for Fresno State vs Boise State
- Over 50.5 (4 units)
While I don't have many expectations for Fresno State in this one, I have confidence they will score more than they did last week. Boise State's offense is lethal, and they might be able to put up these points by themselves. At home, the Broncos have scored no less than 41 points this season. Aside from their latest defeat, Fresno State had put up at least 20 points per game. While the benching of Warner might change that, I expect the Bulldogs to reach at least double digits in scoring in this one, with the Broncos taking care of the rest to reach the over.
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