Fresno State vs. Oregon State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
The Oregon State Beavers (0-1) stumbled in their season opener, losing to California in a 34-15 affair. They’ll try to bounce back on Saturday when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs (1-1). We’ve got you covered with our Fresno State vs. Oregon State prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 ET from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, OR.
Bulldogs Bounce Back, Hammer the Eagles
The Fresno State Bulldogs had a regime change over the offseason, and Matt Entz has taken over the for program moving forward. He brought in a couple of new coordinators, with Josh Davis leading the offense and Nick Benedetto taking over the defense. Fresno State played in week zero, so they already have a couple of games under their belt. The Bulldogs dropped the opener to Kansas (31-7), but bounced back with a solid 42-14 victory at home last week against Georgia Southern.
So far, it has been QB E.J. Warner leading the way under center. He has thrown for 355 yards on a 67.9% completion rate, adding no touchdowns and four interceptions. His top target is Josiah Freeman, who has 67 yards on six receptions. As for the rushing attack, Bryson Donelson is the top back with 201 yards and one touchdown.
- After week one, Fresno State is priced at +850 to win the conference title.
- The Bulldogs finished last season ranked 85th in scoring (24.4 PPG), while coming in at 112th in yards per game (326.3).
- Defensively, they were 50th in points given up per game (24.4) and 38th in yards conceded per contest (346.2).
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Beavers Drop Opener to the Bears
The Oregon State Beavers opened their season against a former conference opponent in California, but the Beavers dropped that contest at home in a 34-15 affair. This pushed head coach Trent Bray, who’s in his second year, to 5-8 (1-0 PAC-12) in his head coaching career. The Beavers are coming off of a 5-7 (1-0 PAC-12) season, where they missed a bowl game. Circling back to week one, Oregon State was out-gained 356-313 and they also lost the turnover battle (2-0).
Maalik Murphy, a transfer from Duke, will lead the offense under center this season. The junior threw for 244 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception in the loss to Cal. His key targets out wide will be WRs Trent Walker (136 yards) and Taz Reddicks (16 yards). RB Anthony Hankerson logged 22 yards in the receiving game, while scoring a touchdown and gaining 42 yards on the ground.
- Touching on last year’s metrics, the Beavers were 97th in points per game (23.0) and 65th in yards per week (379.7).
- They were 100th in defensive scoring (31.3 PAPG) and 97th in yards conceded per game (408.0).
Fresno State vs. Oregon State pick
Spread pick for Fresno State vs. Oregon State
- Oregon State Beavers -3.0 (-110) (5 units)
I’m not very high on either of these teams this season, but someone has to win (and cover) this game on Saturday. With Oregon State having the home-field advantage, I’m going to ride with them at -3.0.
Really, there’s one key metric that I cannot get over for Fresno State, and it’s their turnover margin. Through two games this season, the Bulldogs are -2.5 in turnover margin per game. QB E.J. Warner has yet to log a touchdown pass through two games, and he owns a 0/4 TD/INT ratio. Corvallis can be a tough place to play at times, and I’m not expecting a breakout performance for Warner on the road on Saturday. Give me Oregon State minus the points.
Over/Under Pick for Fresno State vs. Oregon State
- Under 45.5 (-110) (5 units)
Neither of these offenses has been very potent out of the gate in 2025. Fresno State turned in a quality 42-point performance last weekend against Georgia Southern, but I don’t put much stock in that outing against a bottom-tier organization. I think we see a Bulldogs offense that more resembles their 31-7 week zero defeat on the road against Kansas. As I mentioned earlier, this team struggles to pass the ball. They’re averaging only 177.5 passing yards per game through two weeks.
On the other hand, we have an Oregon State offense that managed only 15 points against California last weekend. The Beavers only put up 23.0 points per game (97th) last season. While they draw a favorable opponent, I’m not convinced that they‘ll turn things around completely. I’m taking the under in this matchup of two snake-bitten offenses.
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