Fresno State vs San Diego State Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 17 2026
The old Oil Can Trophy will be up for grabs, when the Fresno State Bulldogs take on the San Diego State Aztecs. This rivalry game is scheduled for Saturday October 17, 2026 at 10:30 pm EST. CBS Sports Network will broadcast the matchup from beautiful Snapdragon Stadium. The Bulldogs have been installed as a 7.5 point favorite with the total sitting at 46.5. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.
Fresno State off a tough loss
The Fresno State Bulldogs won nine games last season and capped it with an Arizona Bowl victory against Miami OH. The Bulldogs (4-2) were outclassed in a season opening loss at USC, but rebounded with four straight victories. Last week, Fresno State was gashed for 512 total yards during a 38-31 home loss versus 23rd ranked Boise State.
Junior QB Jayden Mandal started the scoring for Fresno State with an eight-yard touchdown run. Mandal added 218 passing yards and two touchdowns. Junior WR Ezekiel Avit added 96 receiving yards and a pair of scores for the Bulldogs, who were outgained on the ground by a 274-69 margin.
Second-year Fresno State head coach Matt Entz wants the identity of his team to be physical. The Bulldogs have seen their production on the ground dip about 30 yards from last year (139.7 ypg) and are scoring 28.3 points per game. Fresno State ranks in the middle of the Pac 12 Conference in total defense (384.3 ypg) and are allowing 20 points on average.
San Diego State is a mess on both sides of the ball
The San Diego State Aztecs won nine games last season behind one of the best defenses in the country, but have fallen on hard times in 2026. The Aztecs (2-4) have split their first two Pac 12 Conference games and have been torched for 161 points in their four losses. On Saturday, San Diego State trailed by 31 points at halftime during an ugly 66-14 road loss against Oregon State.
Senior QB Jayden Denegal completed just 5-of-19 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. San Diego State was limited to 56 yards on 21 carries and sophomore RB Javion Kinnard finished with a team-high 41 yards. The Aztecs were outgained by a 651-147 margin and allowed the Beavers to possess the ball for more than 42 minutes.
San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis was known for his Flash Fast offense when he was at Kent State, but that has not translated with the Aztecs. The offense ranks last in the Pac 12 Conference (277.7 ypg) and is averaging 22.8 points per game. San Diego State is allowing close to 500 yards of total offense and giving up 35 points on average.
Fresno State vs San Diego State Picks and Prediction
Pick: San Diego State +7.5
This has been a competitive series all-time, with San Diego State owning a 32-27-4 advantage over Fresno State. Last year, the Aztecs defeated the Bulldogs on the road by a 23-0 final score. Sean Lewis said in his press conference that everything is on the table, including a possible change at quarterback. Look for a spirited effort from the Aztecs at home to cover this number.
Pick: Over 46.5
San Diego State benefitted from a couple of turnovers in a 31-29 home victory versus Texas State two weeks ago. A closer look at the box score shows a defense that has been steamrolled for more than 1,200 yards in the last two games. Fresno State is averaging 34.8 points on their four victories and will approach that number here. Take the over.