Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Colorado State Rams Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC Mountain West Conference college football action on Saturday evening, and we have a Hawaii vs Colorado State Prediction ready to roll. The Rainbow Warriors are having a solid season as they are 5-2 so far and come in off a 44-26 home win over Utah State. Colorado State comes in off a 49-21 home win over Fresno State, but they are still just 2-4 on the year. Read on to see our Hawaii vs Colorado State prediction.
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Hawaii Grabs Easy Win Over Utah State
Hawai‘i rolls into Fort Collins riding a two-game win streak, including a 44–26 home victory over Utah State where quarterback Micah Alejado threw for 413 yards and 3 touchdowns. Alejado has emerged as one of the most prolific passers in the Mountain West, completing 65.1% of his throws for 1,456 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He’s supported by a deep receiving corps led by Pofele Ashlock (468 yards, 6 TDs) and Jackson Harris (358 yards, 3 TDs), while Landon Sims adds versatility with 323 rushing yards and 204 receiving yards. The Rainbow Warriors average 28.3 points per game and rank 17th nationally in passing offense at 295.1 yards per game.
Despite their aerial success, Hawai‘i’s run game has lagged, producing just 99.0 rushing yards per game, ranking 125th nationally. The team converts 44.8% of third downs and ranks 11th in red zone efficiency, scoring on 96% of trips. However, ball security has been a concern—Hawai‘i has committed 13 turnovers, tied for 129th in the FBS. Alejado’s mobility and quick release have helped mitigate pressure, but the offensive line has allowed 24 sacks, and the Warriors rank bottom-10 in turnover margin at –6. To win on the road, Hawai‘i must protect the ball and finish drives against a Colorado State defense that thrives on takeaways.
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Defensively, Hawai‘i has been solid, allowing 23.9 points per game and 333.0 total yards, including just 199.3 passing yards and 133.3 rushing yards. Linebacker Jamih Otis and defensive lineman De’Jon Benton anchor a unit that’s recorded 17 sacks and 7 forced turnovers. Safety Peter Manuma leads the team with 38 tackles, while Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina has added 4.0 TFLs and 2.0 sacks. The Warriors rank 44th nationally in total defense and have held opponents to 34.5% on third down. If they can contain Colorado State’s ground game and force long-yardage situations, Hawai‘i has the defensive chops to stay in control.
Colorado State Destroys The Bulldogs
Colorado State returns home after a statement win over Fresno State, a 49–21 blowout where the Rams forced four turnovers and scored on both offense and defense. Quarterback Jackson Brousseau has been efficient, throwing for 565 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions while completing 65.1% of his passes. The Rams average 22.3 points per game and 344.3 total yards, with a balanced attack that includes 185.5 passing yards and 158.8 rushing yards. Running backs Jalen Dupree (401 yards, 2 TDs) and Lloyd Avant (278 yards, 3 TDs) lead a ground game that’s gaining momentum.
Offensively, Colorado State converts just 35.0% of third downs and ranks 109th in time of possession, holding the ball for 27:52 per game. Wideout Armani Winfield leads the team with 231 receiving yards, while tight end Rocky Beers has emerged as a red zone threat. The Rams have committed only 6 turnovers and rank 38th nationally in turnover margin at +3, a key edge against Hawai‘i’s turnover-prone offense. If Brousseau continues to protect the ball and the run game stays efficient, Colorado State can control tempo and keep Alejado off the field.
Defensively, the Rams have struggled, allowing 26.3 points per game and 405.5 total yards, including 226.2 passing yards and 179.3 rushing yards—ranking bottom-25 nationally in both categories. Linebacker Owen Long leads the team with 68 tackles, while Lemondre Joe and Jake Jarmolowich have combined for 6.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. Colorado State ranks 92nd in red zone defense, allowing scores on 88.2% of opponent trips, and has recorded 9 takeaways. Against Hawai‘i’s high-volume passing attack, the Rams will need to generate pressure and win the turnover battle to avoid a shootout.
Hawaii vs Colorado State Pick
Hawaii vs Colorado State Spread Pick
- Colorado State -2.5 (5 Units)
Colorado State -2.5 is a strong position in a matchup where the Rams’ ground game, turnover margin, and home-field edge align against Hawai‘i’s volatility. Quarterback Jackson Brousseau has yet to throw an interception, and the Rams rank 38th nationally in turnover margin at +3, while Hawai‘i has committed 13 turnovers, tied for 129th. With Jalen Dupree and Lloyd Avant combining for nearly 700 rushing yards, Colorado State can control tempo and exploit a Hawai‘i defense that’s solid but vulnerable to sustained drives. If the Rams protect the ball and stay ahead of the chains, they’re built to cover.
Defensively, Colorado State has struggled in yardage but excelled in opportunism, forcing 9 takeaways and scoring defensively in last week’s win over Fresno State. Hawai‘i’s offensive line has allowed 24 sacks, and quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown 5 interceptions, which could be magnified on the road. The Rams have the edge in red zone defense and third-down containment, and their recent momentum suggests they’re peaking at the right time. With a balanced attack and a defense capable of flipping possessions, Colorado State is well-positioned to win and cover at home.
Hawaii vs Colorado State Over/Under Pick
- Over 53 (4 Units)
Over 53 is in play with two offenses capable of explosive drives and defenses that bend more than they break. Hawai‘i averages 28.3 points per game and ranks top-20 nationally in passing, while Colorado State has scored 49 points in its most recent outing and features a dual-threat quarterback with a surging run game. Both teams have red zone efficiency above 88%, and Hawai‘i’s turnover-prone style often leads to short fields and quick scores—on both sides. If Alejado and Brousseau stay aggressive, this matchup could clear the total with room to spare.
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