Hawaii vs. Air Force Prediction and Picks - Saturday, September 27, 2025
Air Force is looking to get off the mark in the Mountain West this Saturday as it takes on Hawaii. You can get the inside line on this game and see our great tips for side and total bets with our Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Air Force Falcons prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 2pm MT (4pm ET) at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, CO., home of the Falcons.
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Warriors look to bounce back
Hawaii (3-2, 0-1 in MWC) will be out for the win after falling just short last week against Fresno State. Trailing by eight points on the final drive of the day, the Rainbow Warriors scored on Blaze Komuku's 10-yard catch but failed to convert the two-point attempt, which would have sent the game into overtime. That loss in Week 4 was the first for Hawaii in front of its own fans this year; the program opened with a tight win over Stanford, their first win against a Power 4 conference team since 2019, and blowouts against Sam Houston and Portland State, while also going down on the road to Arizona.
The Bows will have to up their game to get back in the win column, particularly with the ball in their possession. Komuku's late TD was the offensive unit's only foray into the endzone against Fresno State, the rest of the team's points coming via two field goals - Japanese kicker Kansei Matsuzawa is an NCAAF-leading 13-13 on FGA so far - a safety and a fumble return TD. Micah Alejado threw for 219 yards and a TD but also coughed up three INTs, with Hawaii giving the ball away a total of four times in the game. The program has thrown seven interceptions in the first five games of 2025. For a team that leans so heavily on the pass - 62.9% of their plays come through the air - Hawaii and Alejado cannot afford to make those kinds of mistakes should they hope to be competitive in the MWC.
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Falcons hurt by defense again
The Air Force Falcons (1-2, 0-2 in MWC) have begun their conference season with back-to-back losses. After going down 49-30 to Utah State in their MWC opener, the Falcons pushed Boise State all the way and were just five points down with two minutes left on the clock before finally losing 49-37. It was a breakout game for quarterback Liam Szarka. The sophomore had shared field time in the opening two weeks with Josh Johnson but took the initiative against Boise to dominate once he entered. He threw 246 yards with two TDs and one INT, becoming the first Air Force QB to pick up more than 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. Air Force's offense has moved away from its traditional run-heavy approach to a more balanced outlook in these opening games, averaging 210.5 passing yards and 267.5 rushing yards over the last two weeks.
What clearly needs work is the defense. Air Force has allowed a near-unfathomable 9.1 yards per play against Utah State and Boise State, by far the worst mark in all of Division I football. The Broncos finished just shy of 600 total yards last Saturday and converted 7-10 on third down. So far this year, Air Force is allowing an average of 37.0 points per game, ranking 128th of 136 programs.
Hawaii vs. Air Force pick
Spread Pick for Hawaii vs. Air Force
- Hawaii +6.5 (5 units)
Despite dropping the last game to Fresno State, Hawaii has looked sharp so far, and if it can cut out the turnovers, the Bows have a great chance to get at this weak home defense and cover in Colorado Springs. Alejado will feel confident about getting his passes off against Air Force, who have given up a D1-worst 12.2 yards per pass for an average of 298.5 yards/game. Hawaii has scored on 92.3% of its visits to the Red Zone, and even if it falls short, the unerring Matsuzawa is there to keep the points going over. The Bows won the last meeting between these teams 27-13 back in 2023 and I like them to get a good result this time out, too.
Take the Rainbow Warriors.
Over/Under Pick for Hawaii vs. Air Force
- Over 53.5 (5 units)
Air Force has not disappointed in 2025 when it comes to end zone action. The Falcons average 38.7 points per game so far (38th in NCAAF) while allowing an average of 37.0 ppg (128th), for an average total of 75.7 points. They rank sixth in Division I football with 267.5 rushing yards per game while also picking up 9.8 yards per pass (8th in NCAAF). The home team is 3-0 on the over so far this year. Hawaii went 5-2 on the over in 2024 in MWC play.
Take the over.
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