Hawaii vs. San Jose State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 1, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a Mountain West Conference clash on Saturday night in NorCal, San Jose State hosts Hawaii. San Jose State (2-5, 1-2 MWC) has lost two in a row and Hawaii (6-2, 3-1 MWC) has won three in a row and is in second place in the conference behind San Diego State, who they face in their next game, and Boise State, who they do not face this season. You can find the matchups and full score info in this Hawaii vs. San Jose State prediction.
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San Jose State comes into this game as a slight 2.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 58.5.
Hawaii Getting it Done in the Scoring Department
Hawaii ranks 72nd in the nation, averaging 28.6 ppg and they have averaged 39.7 ppg in their three-game winning streak. In their last game, they were on the road in a 31-19 win over Colorado State, where they outgained them 435 yards to 261 yards, and while they had a turnover, they also forced one. Micah Alejado passed for 301 yards with three TD and one INT, Landon Sims and Cam Barfgield combined to rush for 113 yards, and Jackson Harris had 109 receiving yards and two TD. The Rainbow Warriors covered as a 3-point underdog and they have covered the spread in their last four games.
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Hawaii ranks tied for 57th in defensive scoring (23.3 ppg), and they are a pass-heavy team ranking 14th in passing yards per game but only 126th in rushing yards per game.
Alejado (1,757 yards 12 TD 6 INT) has three TD in each of the last two games, and in the two games before the last one threw for over 400 yards. Sims (382 yards 2 TD) is the lead rusher, has averaged 66 rushing yards in the last three games, and also has 213 receiving yards. Pofele Ashlock and Jackson Harris have combined for 961 receiving yards and 11 TD. The Rainbow Warriors will face a SJSU defense that ranks fourth-to-last in the nation against the pass and 34th against the run.
Injuries
While there are no key injuries, four offensive linemen are questionable, which could be an issue for pass-happy Hawaii.
San Jose State Looks to Double Up
San Jose State only has one conference win and looks to double its win total against a streaking Hawaii team. In their last game, they were on the road in a 30-25 loss to Utah State, where they racked up 534 yards and rushed for nearly 200 yards, but gave up 461 yards and had the only turnover in the game. Walker Eget passed for 340 yards with two TD and no picks, Steve Chavez-Soto and Lamar Radcliffe combined to rush for 176 yards, and Leland Smith and Kyri Shoels combined for 220 receiving yards. The Spartans failed to cover as a 3-point underdog and have not covered the spread in two in a row before doing so in the two games before that.
On the season, SJSU has had issues on both sides of the ball, only ranking tied for 94th in scoring (34.1 ppg) and 100th in points against (29.3 ppg). Like Hawaii, the Spartans are mostly about the pas,s ranking seventh in passing yards per game and only 115th in rushing yards per game.
Eget (2,149 yards, 15 TD 3 INT) has 12 TD and no INT in the last four games, passing for at least 295 yards in each. Chavez-Soto and Radcliffe are the leading rushers for the team with only 198 yards each. The team has three players with at least 386 receiving yards and Danny Scudero (870 yards 8 TD) leads the nation in receiving yards. The last game was only his second of the season, with less than 100 yards, with 25 on six catches. The Spartans will face a Hawaii defense that ranks 31st in the nation in defending the pass and 51st in defending the run.
Injuries
The Spartans have four players listed as questionable but no key players.
Hawaii vs. San Jose State Pick
Spread Pick for Hawaii vs. San Jose State
- Hawaii +2.5 (+4 Units)
Hawaii has won three in a row while San Jose State has lost its last two games. Both of these teams can air it out, but the key is that the Rainbow Warriors have a much better pass defense. SJSU is averaging more passing yards per game, but not by much, and their D has struggled. They rank fourth-to-last in the country in pass defense and face a Hawaii team that is averaging nearly 40 ppg in their three-game win streak. When it comes to the Hawaii vs. San Jose State the Rainbow Warriors will outduel the Spartans in the air, and they will not only cover but get the win as well.
Over/Under Pick for Hawaii vs. San Jose State
- Over 58.5 (+4 Units)
The total is set very high in this game and for good reason, since both teams can really air it out. Even though the total went Under for both of these teams in their last game, I am leaning towards the Over in this one. Hawaii has won three in a row, where they have averaged nearly 40 ppg. They are a pass-first team and are up against a San Jose State pass defense that ranks 133rd out of 136 FBS teams. Even in losing their last two games, the Spartans have totaled 53 points with their seventh-ranked passing offense. Look for a shootout in NorCal in this one, which will be a barnburner and high-scoring game, so take the Over.
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