Houston Cougars vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11
Use Code SSWC The Houston Cougars will visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys for an early Big 12 matchup, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Houston vs. Oklahoma State prediction. These teams could hardly be moving faster in opposite directions–Houston is 4-1 with only a loss to No. 11 Texas Tech blemishing their record, while Oklahoma State is 1-4 and hasn't won since their season opener against FCS UT Martin. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 11.
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Weigman probable to return for Houston after Week 6 loss
After rolling to a 4-0 start to their season and entering Big 12 conference play 1-0 with a 36-20 home win over Colorado, the Houston Cougars hit their first snag against No. 11 Texas Tech last week. The game got away early, if slowly–Texas Tech converted field goals on each of their first three possessions, before scoring a pair of touchdowns to put them up 22-3 early in the second quarter. Houston committed two turnovers early to give Texas Tech advantageous field position, but ended up finishing the game with only 267 yards of offense to the Red Raiders' 552, regardless. The Cougars ended up with three total turnovers, only 12 first downs, and only one successful third-down conversion on 12 attempts. Conversely, the Red Raiders turned the ball over once, gained 27 first downs, and converted on half of their third-down attempts.
Junior starting quarterback Conner Weigman, in his first year with the Cougars after three seasons at Texas A&M, left the game with an injury in the second quarter and didn't return. He entered concussion protocol and didn't practice with the team on Monday, but he's since returned to practice and was designated as probable on Wednesday's Big 12 availability report. Through just over four games this season, Weigman has totaled 910 passing yards and six touchdowns, completing 59.3% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. The team's offense struggled mightily in his absence–backup quarterback Zeon Chriss went 5/13 for 93 yards and a touchdown while leading the team on the ground with 59 yards.
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Despite the setback, Houston ranks 96th in passing yards (199.2), 66th in rushing yards (157.8), 86th in points (27.2), and 29th in points allowed (17.6) per game among FBS teams. If they look back to form on Saturday, they should easily handle an Oklahoma State team that's struggled to do much of anything in 2025.
Can Oklahoma State get worse?
It's been a rough season for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who enter Week 7 at 13th in the Big 12 with a 1-4 overall record and 0-2 record in conference play. If they hadn't taken an early bye in Week 3, they'd likely be alone at the bottom of the standings below Colorado and West Virginia. The team already fired longtime head coach Mike Gundy, the second-longest-tenured FBS head coach at the time, after a 19-12 loss to Tulsa in Week 4. Interim head coach Doug Meacham has overseen a 45-27 loss to Baylor and a 41-13 loss at Arizona in the two games since, doing little to build hope that OSU will turn things around this season.
The degree to which Arizona outclassed Oklahoma State in Week 6 can hardly be overstated. The Cowboys gained only 158 yards of offense, converted seven first downs, and moved the sticks only three times on 17 third-down plays. The Wildcats gained 479 yards and 28 first downs, converting on 5/12 third downs and their lone fourth down attempt. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita finished the game with 28 completions for 376 yards and five touchdowns on 38 attempts; Zane Flores, the Cowboys' starter, completed 9 of 20 passes for 47 yards and an interception while co-leading the team with 31 yards on the ground. Flores was forced into action after an injury to Hauss Hejny in Week 1, but he's taken the lion's share of quarterback snaps for the Cowboys through five games and has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season. Flores suffered a shoulder injury and was replaced by Sam Jackson, a former wide receiver.
Oklahoma State ranks 113th in passing yards (175.4), T-93rd in rushing yards (140.4), 131st in points (15.2), and 130th in points allowed (36.2) per game among 136 FBS teams heading into Week 7. It's hard to imagine things turning around this season, let alone against a Houston team that's handled far better opponents than the Cowboys this season.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Pick
Spread Pick for Houston vs Oklahoma State
- Houston -14.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Cougars are 3-2 against the spread this season, and they've covered their longest spreads as favorites against Stephen F. Austin (27-0, -23.5) and Rice (35-9, -14.0). They're visiting a Cowboys team that's 1-4 against the spread, only just covering as 21-point underdogs at home against Baylor (45-27) two weeks ago. Houston only needs to clear just over a two-touchdown lead to cover here–they're more than two touchdowns better than the product Oklahoma State has offered in 2025. The Cowboys have an interim coach and major issues at quarterback, with Flores listed as doubtful and Hejny out.
Over/Under Pick for Houston vs Oklahoma State
- Over 47.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Cowboys' offense has been dismal in 2025, but they've been significantly worse in their two road games than in their three home games. Their last game in Stillwater was their 45-27 loss to Baylor, the only time they've eclipsed 20 points this season against an FBS opponent. The Cougars' offense hasn't been any worse on the road than at home, and the only time they've scored fewer than 27 points themselves was last week against Texas Tech. The Team Total Over is 3-0 in their other games against FBS teams–I'd take it to hit again here.
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