Houston Cougars vs. UCF Knights, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks for Friday, November 7, 2025
Use Code SSWC Friday night college football has Big 12 action on the board, and we have Houston vs. UCF predictions to get you ready for all of the action. The Cougars (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) were upset by West Virginia, 45-35, as -12.5 favorites at home last weekend. The Knights (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) were unable to get going in a 30-3 loss at Baylor last week as +3 underdogs. Kickoff from FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando is scheduled for 8:00 EST. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Houston knocked off the charts
The Cougars were ranked and rolling along before West Virginia ruined the good times and stopped their three-game winning streak. The loss moved them to 4-2 SU in Big 12 play.
Houston’s offense averaged 32.3 points over their last four games, and this season, they are putting up 29.4 points per game. The team averages 383.3 total yards per game, with 222 yards coming via their passing game. Conner Weigman had a season-high 309 passing yards and 4 TDs against West Virginia, but also tossed 2 interceptions. He ranks eighth in the Big 12 with 1,890 yards, with 16 TDs, 4 INTs and he’s been sacked 15 times. Amare Thomas is third in the conference with 634 yards, and his 7 TDs are fourth. The Cougars’ running game averages 161.3 yards per game, led by the efforts of Dean Connors, who is fourth in the Big 12 with 657 rushing yards.
The scoring defense for the Cougars ranks sixth in the conference, allowing 21.6 points per game, and the 338.8 total yards yielded is seventh best. They are giving up 204.4 yards via the pass and against the run; Houston has allowed 134.3 yards per game, fifth best in the Big 12. They’ve recorded 21 sacks and picked off six passes to date. Eddie Walles III has a team-high 5.5 sacks with 45 sacks. Jalen Garner leads the team and is 16th in the conference with 58 tackles.
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Team notes
- Conners has five 20-plus yard rushes this season.
- Thomas was the first Cougar since Tank Dell in 2021 to score 3 TDs in a game.
- Tight end Tanner Koziol had caught a touchdown pass in three straight games.
- Last weekend was the third time this season that Houston’s offense had at least 400 yards.
- The team is tied for fifth in the country with three blocked kicks this season.
UCF coming up short
The Knights were unable to use the bye week to their advantage as the offense failed to show up in their loss to Baylor. The team has gone 1-4 in Big 12 play.
The UCF offense scored 20 points or less in each of their losses and on the year, they’ve averaged 27.3 points per game. They are still seventh in the Big 12 in total yards, averaging 417.6 yards per game. Through the air, they average 226.3 yards per game. Tayven Jackson had a tough one versus Baylor, throwing for 151 yards and 2 interceptions. The junior QB has 1,334 passing yards, 5 TDs, and 4 INTs. Three receivers have over 200 yards to their credit. Duane Thomas Jr. leads the group with 38 catches for 393 yards. The offensive line has given up 13 sacks but also aided the run game to 191.4 yards per game, the fourth-best average in the Big 12. Myles Montgomery has 572 yards and 3 TDs on 112 carries.
The Knights have the fourth-best scoring defense in the Big 12, allowing 18.8 points and 307.8 total yards per game. They have the third-best pass defense in the conference, and 11th in the country, allowing just 161.4 yards per game. Versus the run, opponents average 146.4 yards against them. UCF has 19 sacks to its credit with 5 interceptions. Cole Kozlowski and Lewis Carter each have a team-high 50 tackles. Malachi Lawrence leads the team and is tied for third in the conference with 6 sacks.
Team notes
- Lawrence ranks 9th in sacks among active FBS players with 19 in his career.
- Jaden Nixon has scored 6 rushing TDs on 35 carries.
- Nixon ranks 33rd in the nation with an average of 109.88 all-purpose yards per game.
- The Knights are tied for 37th overall, averaging 6.2 tackles for loss per game.
- They rank 17th in the country on third-down defense, holding opponents to 36 conversions in 113 attempts.
Houston vs. UCF Picks
Spread Pick for Houston vs. UCF
- Houston -1.5 (5 units)
Former Conference USA rivals, these two have met 11 times in the past, with UCF owning an 8-3 SU advantage, including wins in the last three meetings. These two last met in 2023, a game the Knights won by 13 points as -15.5 favorites. UCF is heavy on the run this season, and that hasn’t been paying off for them of late. Houston has the fifth-best run defense in the Big 12, so they are going to stack things up front to slow UCF and force them to pass. There, they’ll have the opportunity to push the pressure into the backfield and force mistakes. Houston is 4-0 SU on the road this season with a win margin of 14.8 points per game. They can put themselves in position for a good bowl game if they can win out, and they want to make up for a missed chance last week against West Virginia.
Take Houston to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Houston vs. UCF
- Under 47.5 (4 units)
The last three meetings between these two teams had totals of over 60, and they only went over in one of those. Now that these two are Big 12 teams, their focus has changed from going all-out on offense, so the total has dropped drastically. These two offenses sit in the bottom half of the Big 12 in scoring offense and both have a top 6 scoring defense. The Knights' offense scored just three points in their most recent effort against a defense that ranks 13th in the conference. Relying on the run, they tend to eat up a lot of the clock, and in conference play, they’ve failed to cash in a lot. The Cougars scored 27 points or fewer in half of their conference games, including two of the three they’ve played on the road. This will be a slow starter. The under is 5-2 in the last seven games between the two teams.
Take the under.
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