Houston vs. Baylor, Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction, Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025
We've got a Big 12 battle in Texas in this Houston vs. Baylor prediction for Saturday. The weather forecast is for 60s and rain from Waco. No. 23 Houston (8-3, 5-3 B12) is playing for pride since it wrapped up bowl eligibility for the first time since 2012. Baylor (5-6, 3-5 B12) does have a chance to make a bowl game with a win. The Bears have lost two straight, including to No. 13 Utah and at Arizona. Last season, they beat the Cougars 20-10 on the road as a 7-point road favorite. Houston lost to TCU at home in their last game, 17-14. Baylor is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 58.5. This game will be on TNT and HBO Max at 12pmET. Check out more winners on Stat Salt in college football and other sports.
Cougars looking to bounce back
Hosuton fell at home to TCU last week, which continues a bizarre trend of going 3-3 at home and 5-0 on the road. Last week, the Cougars allowed 14 points in the first quarter and just three the rest of the game. But still lost 17-14 despite TCU QB Josh Hoover being picked off three times by the Houston defense. The Houston offense provided 230 yards rushing, but they couldn't finish drives. QB Conner Wiegman completed 15 of 29 for 161 yards with two TDs and one pick and 114 yards rushing.
Weigman is completing 63.5% of his passes for 2,274 yards with 20 TDs and eight INTs, with 523 rushing yards and nine TDs. Dean Connors leads the team with 800 rushing yards, while WR Amare Thomas adds 50 catches for 809 yards with nine TDs. With a dual-threat quarterback in Weigman, the Cougars are a balanced team, averaging 216.5 yards per game in the air and 172 rushing yards. But they are averaging just 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 7.7 yards per passing attempt. The defense is adequate, allowing around 227 passing yards and 149 rushing yards per game. They rank 40th in opponent yards per rush attempt.
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Bears need a win to go bowling
Baylor beat UCF 30-3 on Nov. 1 and then their defense imploded as they gave up 55 points at home against Utah on Nov. 15 (55-28) and 41 points at Arizona (41-17) on Nov. 22. The Bears do have some good wins this season over SMU 48-45 in overtime on Sept 6 and a 35-34 win over Kansas STate on Oct. 4. But since that win over K-State, they've lost four of their last five games.
QB Sawyer Robertson was not very good against Arizona, completing 22 of 33 for 162 yards with a TD and two picks. Caden Knighten rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries to help the Bears' ground attack. The defense didn't give up all the points as the Wildcats had a pick-six in the fourth quarter to ice the game.
Robertson is having a strong season with 3,372 yards, 30 TDs, and 11 INTs, but has been sacked 21 times. Bryson Washington has 772 yards rushing (5.1ypc) with six scores. They have some excellent receivers led by Josh Cameron, who has 66 catches for 817 yards and eight TDs.
When it comes to team stats and when you at the biggest problems for the Bears? It's simple. They are -12 in the turnover column. That negates 309.6 yards per game in the air and 144.2 rushing yards per game with 4.1 yards per carry..
Key Injuries for Baylor:
- S Jacob Redding (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 53 tackles and 3 INTs.
Betting Trends for Houston vs. Baylor:
Houston:
- 8-4 ATS last 12 games.
- 7-3 Over last 10 games.
Baylor:
- 1-8 ATS last 9 games.
- 1-5 ATS last 6 at home.
Spread Pick for Houston vs. Baylor
Houston vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
- Houston +2.5 (4 units)
You're asking a turnover-prone Baylor team to play in the rain, at home against a Houston squad that is 5-0 on the road. Houston has the better running team with a more mobile quarterback in Weigman and that certainly helps if this becomes a ground game due to the weather. Yes, Baylor has the motivation of going to a bowl game, but they have five wins for a reason. They aren't a very good football team and defensively, they've allowed over 430 yards per game and 215 rushing yards. They have one of the worst rush defenses in the nation and the Cougars will take advantage.
Over/Houston Pick for Houston vs. Baylor
- Over 58.5 (5 units)
Even with the weather, I think Houston puts up at least 30 points with their ground attack against that poor defense that has some injuries. Baylor has gone over in four of their last seven games. The only reason they went under last week because the total was 62.5. Houston has gone over in four of their last six games and seven of the last 10.
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