Houston vs. Oregon State Prediction and Picks for Friday, September 26th, 2025
We have Friday night college football getting week five started, and this should be a fun non-conference clash between the Houston Cougars (3-0) and the Oregon State Beavers (0-4). We’ve got you covered with our Houston vs. Oregon State prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 ET from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, OR. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Cougars Handle Buffs, Move To 3-0
Coach Willie Fritz is back for his second season with the Houston Cougars, following an impressive eight-year run at Tulane. The Cougs went 4-8 (3-6 B12) last season, but they’ve nearly met that win total already in 2025, going 3-0 out of the gate. So far, Houston cruised past SF Austin (27-0), Rice (35-9), and Colorado (36-20), most recently. The Cougars had a built-in bye week last weekend, so they should be fresh coming off of their two-possession victory at home against the Buffaloes on September 12th. That was a conference game, so Houston is 1-0 in Big 12 play. It’s worth mentioning that they’re 3-0 ATS and 2-1 to the over.
In terms of personnel, it’s Conner Weigman leading the charge under center for the Cougars this season. The junior transfer from Texas A&M has thrown for 569 yards on a 64.3% completion rate, while posting a 4/0 TD/INT ratio. WR Stephon Johnson has emerged as the top target out wide, hauling in six passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. RB Dean Connors has handled a bulk of the rushing workload, logging 271 yards and three touchdowns on 50 carries (5.4 YPC).
- Following the 3-0 start, Houston’s updated win total sits at 7.5 (-140/+115) and they’re priced at +1700 to win the Big 12 championship.
- Offensively, the Cougars are scoring 35.5 points per game (25th), while averaging 411.5 yards per week (46th).
- Defensively, Houston is 15th in the country this year, conceding 14.5 points per game against FBS-level opposition. They’re allowing 264.0 yards per contest, which is 16th.
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Beavers Lose Civil War, Drop To 0-4
Meanwhile, things are not going great for second-year head coach Trent Bray and his Oregon State Beavers. The team went just 5-7 (1-0 PAC-12) last season and they’re already 0-4 out of the gate in 2025. The four defeats in 2025 have come at the hands of California (34-15), Fresno State (36-27), #21 Texas Tech (45-14), and #6 Oregon (41-7), most recently. The Beavers have dropped to 0-4 ATS and they’re split 2-2 between the over and under.
QB Maalik Murphy is the man under center in Corvallis this season. The junior transfer, who has spent time at Texas and Duke, has thrown for 964 yards on a 57.3% completion rate. Murphy has been prone to turnovers, registering a 6/5 TD/INT ratio in 2025. WR Trent Walker leads the receiving group, where he has 302 yards on 23 receptions. RB Anthony Hankerson has been a workhorse in the backfield, gaining 228 yards and two touchdowns on 65 totes (3.5 YPC).
- Oregon State’s offense has been subpar this season, ranking 115th in scoring (15.8 PPG), while putting up 317.5 yards per game (106th).
- On the defensive side, the Beavers are lousy this season, allowing 39.0 points per game (123rd). In terms of yardage, they’re 112th, conceding 443.0 yards per contest.
- Safety Tyrice Ivy Jr is out for the season due to an undisclosed injury.
Houston vs. Oregon State Pick
Spread Pick for Houston vs. Oregon State
- Houston Cougars -13.5 (-110) (5 units)
Oregon State has been terrible this season. They’re 0-4 both SU and ATS, and all three of their losses to Power Four opponents have come by 19+ points. This includes back-to-back losses by 31 points or more.
I don’t anticipate Coach Trent Bray and his turnover-friendly Beavers figuring things out on a short week after getting blown out 41-7 in the Civil War against the Oregon Ducks. Up next, Oregon State takes on a well-rested Houston team that is coming off of a bye. By the time Friday rolls around, the Cougars will have had 14 days off, while the Beavers will have had six days of rest. Houston has scored 27+ points in all three games, and if it can reach that threshold on Friday, it should be plenty to cover this spread.
Over/Under Pick for Houston vs. Oregon State
- Under 47.5 (-114) (5 units)
I just don’t see where the scoring is going to come from for Oregon State in this game. They've been brutal offensively this season, averaging only 15.8 points per game and adding 317.5 yards per contest. Their top running back, Anthony Hankerson, is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Oregon State will have a tall task against Houston, who is conceding only 9.7 points per game in its three contests this season.
On the other hand, Houston has a huge matchup against #12 Texas Tech looming next weekend. This may be a spot where they may stick to the fundamentals and not step on the gas too much against an inferior opponent. Look for the Cougars to go into Corvallis and stretch out a big enough lead to win the game comfortably, but then throttle down to the basics to avoid injuries and showing too much of their playbook with the big conference game on the horizon. I predict this game lands in the 31-10 range and stays a few points under the number.
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