Indiana vs. Purdue, Picks and Prediction, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025
We have a Big 10 matchup on Saturday featuring an Indiana vs. Purdue prediction. No. 2 Indiana is 11-0 and 8-0 in the Big Ten with a chance to finish the season undefeated. They face Purdue (2-9, 0-8) in the Old Oaken Bucket on Friday at 7:30pmET in a very cold (mid-20s) West Lafayette, Indiana. Indiana won this game at home last season 66-0. The Hoosiers are 28.5-point favorites and the total is 54.5. Check out more college football picks this holiday weekend at Stat Salt.
Hoosiers looking to make Big 10 Championship Game
Indiana will play Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game if the Hoosiers beat Purdue and No. 1 Ohio State beats Michigan on Saturday. They could be facing No. 15 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes in four straight regular-season games. Indiana did not play last week and is coming off a 31-7 home rout of Wisconsin on Nov. 15. In that game, the Hoosiers held the Badgers to just eight first downs and 168 total yards, while Fernando Mendoza passed for 299 yards and four TDs.
Mendoza is the odds-on favorite at -130 for the Heisman Trophy with 2,641 passing yards, 30 TDs and five picks. Maryland transfer RB Roman Hemby leads all rushers with 714 yards and five TDs. However, Indiana has a strong 1-2 punch of Hemby and Kaelon Black, who has 663 yards rushing and five TDs. Omar Cooper Jr, who made an incredible catch to help the Hoosiers beat Penn State a few weeks ago, leads with 55 catches for 740 yards and 10 TDs.
Indiana has been dominant on both sides of the ball, especially defensively, where they allow 166.5 yards per game in the air (7th) and 82.5 yards per game on the ground (3rd). Indiana has not played the strongest schedule, but they did beat Oregon by 10 on teh road and Iowa by five on the road.
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Key Injuries for Indiana:
- WR Elijah Surratt (hamstring) is questionable. Expected to return. Has 10 TD receptions.
- DL Mikail Kamara (undisclosed) is questionable.
Trying to stay competitive
Purdue is also coming off a bye last week after losing at Washington 49-13. This game was never close as the Huskies jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead and never looked back. The Boilermakers have been a little more competitive lately, having lost at Michigan by five (21-16) as a 21-point dog on Nov. 1 and they were edged by Rutgers at home 27-24 as a 3-point favorite. Malachi Singleton threw for 150 yards and one TD, but Purdue couldn't get anything going offensively against Washington. They recorded just 14 first downs and 267 total yards.
Singleton is taking over for Ryan Browne, who had 1,915 yards passing with nine TDs and nine INTs. He did not start the last game, but could play and start. He started the last game and went 1 for 6 against Washington and was replaced by Singleton. The Boilermakers miss RB Devin Mockobee, who has 521 yards rushing and four TDs with 18 catches for 215 yards, but is out for the season with an ankle injury.
Purdue is awful defensively, allowing 246.1 passing yards (89th) and 166.1 rushing yards (82nd). They are also 113th in total yards per game.
Key Injuries for Purdue:
- RB Devin Mockobee (ankle) is out for the season.
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Spread Pick for Indiana vs. Purdue
Indiana vs. Purdue Pick and Prediction
- Indiana -28.5 (4 units)
Purdue is trying to play it coy with the starting quarterbacks but that won't work. They have little ground game and neither quarterback gives Purdue much of a chance to win this game. Mendoza will do the job of managing the game and getting the job done as he has all year. The cold weather might give them a chance to keep it close early, but the Hoosiers will just pound the rock and stop the run, because that's what they do. The game will start slow but the better team with more to play for will eventually grind this out with an easy win on Friday.
Over/Under Pick for Indiana vs. Purdue
- Under 54.5 (4 units)
I don't see a lot of points in this cold weather. Purdue could easily get shut out for a second straight year with their dismal offense against one of the nation's top defensive units. Indiana's defense has allowed 10 or fewer points in six games this season. Purdue has gone under in five of their last six games.
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