Iowa vs. Nebraska, Prediction and Picks – Friday, November 28, 2025
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers will play their annual late-November rivalry game this Friday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction. The Hawkeyes have lost their last two games and will look to bounce back with a win against the Cornhuskers, whom they've beaten in nine of their last ten meetings. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Friday, November 28.
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Hawkeyes escape with win over Spartans in low-scoring thriller
Through eleven games this season, the 7-4 Iowa Hawkeyes have established themselves as a solid, high-floor team. They've threaded a remarkable needle, playing four ranked teams (Iowa State in Week 2; Indiana in Week 5; Oregon in Week 11; USC in Week 12) and losing to each of them, but never by more than five points. They're also 7-0 against unranked opponents this season, although last week's 20-17 win against a struggling Michigan State team was a bit closer than most Hawkeyes fans would've liked.
The Hawkeyes were down 17-7 at the end of the third quarter against the Spartans, but scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to avoid an upset loss. They gained only 301 yards and 16 first downs, committed two turnovers, lost 40 yards on four penalties, and converted only one of ten third-down attempts–all categories in which the Spartans performed better. Their first touchdown–their only points through the first three quarters–came on a 62-yard punt return. The ten points Iowa needed to win weren't scored until the final two minutes of the game, after the Hawkeyes had ended two drives with turnovers, another on a failed fourth-down play, another on a missed field goal, and six more on punts.
Mark Gronowski completed 12 of 22 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown, ran for 57 yards on 11 carries, and gave the ball away twice on a fumble and an interception. The Hawkeyes' ground game was remarkably unexplosive, averaging 3.9 yards on 39 total carries–none of which went for 20 or more yards.
Iowa ranks 131st among 136 FBS teams in passing yards per game (134.8) and 69th in points per game (27.9), but ranks 9th in points allowed per game (15.1) on defense. Through eleven games, they've only allowed three opponents (Rutgers, Penn State, and USC) to eclipse 20 points against them. No opponent has scored 30 or more points against them.
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Cornhuskers look rough in loss to Nittany Lions
The Nebraska Cornhuskers were hot for a stretch this season, and still find themselves at 8th in the Big Ten standings with a 4-4 in-conference record and 7-4 record overall. They were 6-2 a few weeks ago, leading 14-6 in the third quarter against USC, when starting quarterback Dylan Raiola took a sack and subsequently left the game with an injury that was later revealed to be a broken fibula. True freshman quarterback T.J. Lateef finished what turned into a 21-17 loss to USC, and started in the team's 37-10 loss at Penn State in Week 13.
The loss to Penn State looked especially grisly on the defensive side–Ethan Grunkemeyer completed 11 of 12 passes for the Nittany Lions while averaging 15.1 yards per attempt. Their ground unit racked up 231 yards and four touchdowns on 39 carries, led by a historic 160-yard, two-touchdown performance from lead back Kaytron Allen. The Cornhuskers weren't nearly as exciting–Lateef accounted for the team's lone touchdown on the ground, where he gained only 15 yards on ten credited carries, and gained only 187 air yards while completing 21 of 37 passes. Nebraska attempted six fourth-down conversions–one was successful, one was at the end of the first half and inconsequential, and three of them came in the second half when Penn State had an overwhelming lead. The remaining one came at the end of the Cornhuskers' opening drive, with the ball on the Nittany Lions' two-yard line, when a fifth straight run up the middle from Emmett Johnson failed to move the sticks.
Nebraska ranks T-54th in passing yards per game (242.6), 87th in rushing yards per game (136.8), T-46th in points per game (30.5), and T-38th in points allowed per game (21.5). Lateef had a rough day at the office against Penn State, but looked impressive with a lighter load in the team's 28-21 win against UCLA. Johnson carries the team's ground game–he's accounted for 222 of the Cornhuskers' 378 carries, 1,234 of their 1,505 yards, and 11 of their 17 touchdowns.
Iowa vs. Nebraska Pick
Spread Pick for Iowa vs. Nebraska
- Iowa -6.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Hawkeyes have dragged teams into the mud and forced them to play slow, boring, low-wattage football with them this season in a way that most defensive-minded coaches can only dream of. They've beaten each of their seven preceding unranked opponents, winning by more than one score against each of them save for Penn State (25-24) and Michigan State (20-17). The Cornhuskers, while they looked solid against UCLA, don't look like the kind of team that can challenge the Hawkeyes' agenda with their true freshman backup quarterback in the game.
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Over/Under Pick for Iowa vs. Nebraska
- Over 38.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Hawkeyes' reputation for playing low-scoring games precedes them, but it's hard to earn a pregame total line of 38.5 from the oddsmakers. Nebraska has allowed 21 or more points to each Big Ten opponent they've played this season, and the Team Total Over is 7-3 in their games. Plenty of trends, stats, and other bits of information suggest this will be a lower-scoring game, but betting the under on lines this low is a tough way to win. I'd rather buy the dip here–the Team Total Over is still 3-3-1 in Hawkeyes games this season, and only one to have a lower pregame total than this was their 37-0 win over Wisconsin.
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