Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Pick & Prediction - Dec 31, 2025
Use Code SSWC The No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) face the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2) in the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) at Raymond James Stadium. This New Year's Eve matchup features one of the most drastic "roster stability" gaps of the bowl season. While Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has successfully kept nearly his entire veteran roster intact, Vanderbilt will be missing the nation’s top tight end as they look to secure their first-ever 11-win season.
Vanderbilt vs Iowa will be a great top 25 matchup but you can find all of the rest of our college football predictions for more great game outlooks.
Vanderbilt Commodores: The Pavia Show in Tampa
Vanderbilt has been the feel-good story of the SEC, led by Heisman finalist quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia, who finished second in Heisman voting, is confirmed to be "full-go" for this game. However, the Vanderbilt offense suffered a massive blow this week:
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Eli Stowers (TE): Out (NFL Draft Opt-out). The John Mackey Award winner and first-team All-SEC selection led the team in receptions (62) and yards (769). Senior Cole Spence is expected to take his place.
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Makhilyn Young (RB): The New Mexico State transfer will lead the backfield. Young averaged a staggering 9.1 yards per carry this season and is a lethal home-run threat alongside Pavia’s dual-threat playmaking.
The Commodores enter with the momentum of a dominant 45-24 win over Tennessee to close the season. Defensively, they rely on a bend-but-don't-break style led by safety Martel Hight (3 INTs), but they must prepare for an Iowa offensive line that recently won the Joe Moore Award as the best unit in the nation.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Rare Roster Continuity
In an era of mass opt-outs, Iowa stands as an anomaly. Coach Ferentz confirmed that none of the team's 27 seniors have opted out of the bowl game. This gives the Hawkeyes a significant chemistry advantage.
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Mark Gronowski (QB): The South Dakota State transfer and Iowa MVP will start. While he has been efficient, he lacks the dynamic rushing ceiling of Pavia.
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Kaleb Johnson (RB): Out (NFL Draft). Unlike the rest of the seniors, Johnson (the Big Ten’s leading rusher with 1,537 yards) declared for the draft and will not play. Junior Kamari Moulton (783 yards) will handle the bulk of the carries.
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Defense: The Hawkeyes' defense remains one of the best in the country, allowing just 15 points per game in their losses. They will be missing TJ Hall at cornerback (Injury), but the rest of the elite "Phil Parker" secondary is active.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Iowa vs Vanderbilt ATS Pick
- Vanderbilt -5.5 (-108)
I am laying the points with the Commodores. While the loss of Eli Stowers is significant, Diego Pavia’s ability to improvise and create plays with his legs is something this traditional Iowa defense has struggled with in the past (notably against mobile QBs in their losses to Oregon and USC). Vanderbilt's offense is much more explosive than what Iowa typically sees in the Big Ten, and Pavia's "big game" experience this year—including the win over Alabama—makes him the most reliable player on the field.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt O/U Pick
- Under 46.5 (-115)
Both teams feature top-tier defenses, and the loss of Vanderbilt’s primary receiving threat (Stowers) and Iowa’s record-breaking running back (Johnson) points to a lower-scoring affair. Iowa’s offensive line will keep the clock moving with a methodical run game, but the Hawkeyes have struggled to finish drives with touchdowns all year. This has the feel of a 24-17 or 20-13 physical battle that stays well under the 46.5 total.
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