Iowa State vs Arkansas State Pick and Prediction - September 13th, 2025
Arkansas State has a tough challenge on its hands as they host Iowa State on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. EST in Centennial Bank Stadium. Check out our Iowa State Cyclones vs Arkansas State Red Wolves pick and prediction here!
Iowa State is #14 in the country and looking to improve on that with a win here. They are currently 3-0 with a 1-0 conference record, good for the top of the Big 12. Last year, they tied with Arizona State and BYU but this year they are looking for sole possession of the top spot in the conference. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is 1-1 through two games, tying with all but one team in the SBC West. Iowa State is a 21-point favorite while the total is set at 55.5 points. Can the Red Wolves play the spoiler at home with a win?
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Iowa State Eyeing a Playoff Spot
The Cyclones earned a narrow victory over their in-state rivals in Iowa by a score of 16-13. Rocco Becht completed 18/27 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown while Abu Sama II had 47 rushing yards on 12 carries. Carson Hansen had 46 rushing yards on 11 carries and Brett Eskildsen had the most receiving yards with 39. Benjamin Brahmer had the most receptions with four and had the only TD reception on the day. Marcus Neal had the most tackles with five, including four tackle assists, while Tamatoa McDonough had the most sacks with two. Jeremiah Cooper had an interception on the day as well.
For a top-tier football program, Iowa State only has eight incoming transfers and seventeen departures in the transfer portal. WR Chase Sowell is the only four-star recruit to join the Cyclones, while DL Tyler Onyedim was the only four-star player to leave the team. Considering how highly they are ranked and their limited number of players transferring, the Cyclones could have a cohesive unit early to move them up in the rankings due to their chemistry.
Rocco Becht is taking the reins as the starting QB this year for the Cyclones. So far, he has a 68% completion percentage for 595 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. Hansen has the most rushing yards with 136, but five other players have a rushing touchdown this season. While Brahmer has the most receptions with 13 and the most touchdowns with three, he is still third on the team with 106 yards. Eskildsen has the most receiving yards with 162. Marcus Neal Jr. has the most tackles with 22 and McDonough has the most sacks with two. Ta'Shawn James has three passes defended to his name and Cooper is one of three players to have an interception on this year.
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Red Wolves Ready for Redemption
Arkansas State was blown out by Arkansas last week, losing by a score of 56-14. Jaylen Raynor had a subpar outing, completing 21/33 passes for 125 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Raynor also led the team in rushing, but only for 38 yards. Chauncy Cobb was the leading receiver with four catches for 50 yards, while Cameron Ambrose caught the only TD pass. Terry Kirksey Jr. led the team on defense with five tackles and two tackle assists while also grabbing an interception.
The Red Wolves have 37 incoming transfers and 28 outgoing transfers for this season. Makilan Thomas and Dontay Joyner were the biggest names to leave the university, while JJ Harrell and Cody Sigler were the best players to enter the program. With all the transfers, it may take some time for this team to bond together and produce some wins.
Jaylen Raynor is the starting QB for Arkansas State, and he has a 72.3% completion rate with 470 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. Devin Spencer is the current leading rusher with only eight carries, managing 73 yards and a score. Kenyon Clay has the most carries with 27 for 69 yards. Cobb has the most receptions with nine and the most yards with 135, but four other players have a touchdown reception so far. Nigel Nelson has the most tackles on the defense with 18 and Sigler has the most sacks with 1.5. Five different players are tied for the lead with one pass defended, while two players have an interception on the year.
Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Pick
Spread Pick for Iowa State vs Arkansas State
- Iowa State -21 (4 units)
Considering Arkansas State got blown out by Arkansas, I don't see why Iowa State would have a problem against them. The Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games and they have given up an average of 14 points per game in their last three outings. Arkansas State's defense has not been the source of their strength for a while now and giving up 56 points to Arkansas further cements that. I expect Iowa State to keep the ball on the ground in the second half as they slowly pull away against a tired defense. Arkansas State has little to no rushing game that we've seen thus far as well.
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Over/Under pick for Iowa State vs Arkansas State
- Under 55.5 (4 units)
This is primarily based on the idea that the Cyclones will prefer to run out the clock rather than run up the score in this one. Iowa State just beat Iowa at their own game, mastering the art of defense. While they have played weaker opponents, the Cyclones have confidence on the defensive side of the ball, and I doubt Arkansas State scores more than 20 points in this one. Iowa State has multiple pieces in their rushing attack that can be used, and I expect them to use that advantage to the max, draining away the clock as it come up with an easy victory.
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