Iowa State vs Iowa Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Iowa State Cyclones make the short trip to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, to face the No. 22 Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday, September 12, in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on NBC. Both teams enter at 1-0, with Iowa State coming off a 38-10 victory over Southeast Missouri and Iowa opening with a dominant 40-0 shutout of Northern Illinois. Iowa is currently favored by 14.5 points with the total set at 41.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Iowa State Begins New Era With Convincing Win

The Jimmy Rogers era started successfully in Ames as Iowa State defeated Southeast Missouri 38-10. The Cyclones built a 28-7 halftime advantage and were never seriously threatened.

Transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor accounted for four touchdowns in his Iowa State debut. Raynor completed 8 of 16 passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns without an interception while adding 32 rushing yards and two more scores.

Defensively, Isaac Terrell made an immediate impact after following Rogers from Washington State. Terrell recorded three sacks, all during the first half, and helped establish the aggressive defensive identity Rogers wants to bring to Ames.

The competition becomes dramatically stronger this week. Iowa State's reconstructed roster now has to deal with an Iowa team that completely overwhelmed Northern Illinois at the line of scrimmage. Raynor's mobility could be particularly important against the Hawkeyes' pressure.

Iowa Dominates on Both Sides of the Ball

Iowa's opener was one of the most complete performances of Week 1. The Hawkeyes crushed Northern Illinois 40-0 while producing 507 total yards and limiting NIU to only 120.

The running game was devastating. Kamari Moulton rushed 11 times for 183 yards and two touchdowns, helping Iowa establish control from the beginning. The Hawkeyes finished with 289 rushing yards.

Iowa also used multiple quarterbacks. Hank Brown completed 12 of 20 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown, while Jeremy Hecklinski went 7 of 16 for 76 yards and another score.

The defense may have been even more impressive. Northern Illinois finished with only seven rushing yards, and Iowa posted the shutout without needing its offense to play aggressively for four quarters. The question is how much of that dominance carries over against a considerably more talented Iowa State offense.

Iowa State vs Iowa Picks and Prediction

Pick: Iowa State +14.5

Iowa State +14.5 is my preferred side. Iowa was sensational in Week 1, but laying more than two touchdowns in the Cy-Hawk rivalry creates value on the underdog. Raynor gives Iowa State a veteran quarterback capable of extending plays with his legs, while Rogers' defense already showed it can generate pressure. Iowa should remain favored and has the stronger Week 1 résumé, but this rivalry has traditionally rewarded teams that avoid mistakes rather than teams trying to create margin. Take Iowa State +14.5.

Pick: Under 41.5

I'm also taking Under 41.5 despite the low number. Iowa's defense just held Northern Illinois to 120 yards and zero points, while Iowa State's new defensive front produced consistent pressure against Southeast Missouri. Both teams have incentive to lean on the running game and protect the football in a rivalry matchup. Iowa's 40-point opener doesn't automatically mean its offense suddenly becomes high-tempo. A game in the neighborhood of 24-13 or 27-13 stays underneath. Take Under 41.5.

Final Picks: Iowa State +14.5 and Under 41.5