Iowa vs. Rutgers Prediction and Picks for Friday, September 19th, 2025
Week 4 of the college football season is upon us, and the weekend kicks off with a Friday night Big Ten showdown between the Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1, 0-0 B1G) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0, 0-0 B1G). We’ve got you covered with our Iowa vs. Rutgers prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET from SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Hawkeyes Bounce Back, Hammer Minutemen
Coach Kirk Ferentz continues to lead an Iowa Hawkeyes program that’s fundamentally sound year in and year out. Barring the eight-game 2020 season, Iowa has logged 8+ wins eight consecutive times. They’re out to a 2-1 start in 2025. They suffered a road loss to #16 Iowa State (16-13) in the CyHawk rivalry game, and the defeat was bookended by tune-up victories over UAlbany (34-7) and UMASS (47-7), more recently.
Mark Gronowski, a South Dakota State transfer, is leading the way under center for the Hawkeyes this season. The signal caller hasn’t been overpowering in 2025, logging 306 passing yards on a 58.7% completion rate, while adding three touchdowns and one interception. His top target has been WR Sam Phillips (90 yards), while WR Jacob Gill (80 yards) isn’t too far off of Phillips’ pace. RB Xavier Williams has spearheaded the rushing attack, logging 186 yards and one touchdown on 26 carries (7.2 YPC).
- Heading into week 4, Iowa’s updated win total is 6.5 (+135/-165), and they have a +6500 price to win the Big Ten title.
- Iowa’s offense has been serviceable this season, ranking 46th in scoring (30.0 PPG), while putting up 324.5 yards per game (102nd).
- Defensively, the Hawkeyes are 13th in the country this year, conceding 11.5 points per game. They’re allowing 178.5 yards per contest, which is second behind only BYU (161.0).
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Scarlet Knights Look Great, 3-0 in 2025
Meanwhile, the 17th season of Coach Greg Schiano is off to a roaring start for his Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is 3-0 out of the gate, notching wins over Ohio (34-31), Miami (OH) (45-17), and FCS Norfolk State (60-10).
Veteran quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis returns under center this season, and the senior QB has been lighting it up in 2025. He has thrown for 820 yards on a 72.9% completion rate, while adding seven touchdowns and no interceptions. WRs KJ Duff (244 yards, 2 TD), Ian Strong (216 yards, 2 TD), and DT Sheffield (201 yards, 2 TD) lead a diverse receiving group for Kaliakmanis to distribute the ball to. RB Antwan Raymond leads the rushing attack, and he has 248 yards and five touchdowns on 43 totes (5.9 YPC).
- Rutgers is currently projected to finish with 5.5 wins (-175/+140), and they have a +25000 price to win the conference title.
- Offensively, the Scarlet Knights are scoring 39.5 points per game (18th), while averaging 410.0 yards per week (48th).
- On the defensive side, Rutgers is allowing 24.0 points per game (64th). In terms of yardage, they’re 86th, conceding 404.0 yards per contest.
Iowa vs. Rutgers Pick
Spread Pick for Iowa vs. Rutgers
- Rutgers +2.5 (-104) (5 units)
This is a fascinating Friday night clash from a sports betting perspective, and the oddsmakers agree as they see Iowa as a slim 2.5-point road favorite.
However, I have questions about Iowa. Specifically, we’ve yet to see transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski light it up this season. Through three games, he has only 306 yards on a 58.7% completion rate. In his one game against a Power Four opponent (Iowa State), he went 13-for-24 (54.2%) for 83 yards and a 0/1 TD/INT ratio. The Hawkeyes were trailing for the vast majority of that game, so the fact that Gronowski couldn’t come through is worrisome. Being that Rutgers is a high-powered offensive program, Gronowski could be forced to pass and try to play catch-up throughout this game. I don’t trust him on the road on a short week against a 3-0 Rutgers team. I’ll take the 2.5 points with Rutgers.
Over/Under Pick for Iowa vs. Rutgers
- Over 45.5 (-105) (5 units)
This Rutgers offense has been balling out this season, scoring 39.5 points per game (18th) against FBS-level competition. Veteran gunslinger Athan Kaliakmanis has finally refined his skills and looks like a serious threat under center in 2025. He has 820 yards, seven touchdowns, and a 72.9% completion rate. He’ll be in a comfortable home environment, so I expect Kaliakmanis and this solid Scarlet Knights offense to explode. The over is 7-0 in Rutgers’ last seven home games.
While I was dogging Gronowski above, I don’t believe that we’ve seen second-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester unleash the full offensive playbook just yet. Iowa has had a couple of tune-up games, and they’re coming off of a season where they averaged a respectable 26.7 points per game. It appears the Hawkeyes are evolving offensively, and I think this is a slightly different team than we’ve seen in years past. This presents a decent buy-low opportunity – especially against a high-octane opponent. I’m expecting enough offense to sneak over the total.
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